July 18, 2025

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Kenya at a Crossroads: Rising Authoritarianism and the Mobilization of a New Generation

AP Photo/Brian Inganga

Kenya is grappling with a period of major political upheaval as the violent wave of youth-led demonstrations protesting President William Ruto’s administration has intensified over the course of the last two weeks. Ruto ascended to power over three years ago, positioning himself as a champion of the poor and pledging to tackle economic stagnation, corruption, and police brutality. However, his administration has instead overseen a rapidly deteriorating economic climate, characterized by rising inflation, public debt surpassing 70 percent of GDP, and austerity-driven fiscal reforms that disproportionately impact lower-income citizens.

On July 7, police clashed with demonstrators during the 35th anniversary of “Saba Saba” Day – the historic march that led to the end of single-party rule in Kenya. Protests spread across 17 counties and led to the arrest of over 500 people. President Ruto escalated his rhetoric, branding the demonstrators as “terrorists” and criminals. At least 71 individuals, including an opposition member of parliament and several allies, now face terrorism charges – a move widely condemned by human rights groups as excessive and unjustified. The use of anti-terror laws to suppress dissent is rare in Kenya’s history and marks a troubling precedent.

Kenya's National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) determined that 38 people were killed and 130 were wounded as the protests turned violent. This was the single deadliest day of unrest since the protests started last summer according to KNCHR. The actual casualty figures are expected to be significantly higher, with many victims unaccounted for in official tallies. Cases of abduction have also surged since the protests began, with rights groups estimating over 80 incidents in the past year and dozens still unaccounted for. Public anger has been intensifying, especially after Ruto ordered security forces to shoot protestors who were damaging businesses or private property “in the leg.” He echoed earlier remarks by Interior and National Administration Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, who had urged police just a week prior to “shoot on sight” anyone approaching police stations during the protests.

The Ruto administration has taken a hardline approach, with thousands of security personnel deployed across major urban centers including Kiambu and Kajiado, as well as the capital city of Nairobi. Peaceful demonstrators have been met with the use of hired plain clothes enforcers – diminishing the prospect of accountability. Moreover, activists have been subjected to extrajudicial abductions and interrogations aimed at silencing dissent. This response has been justified by claims from the government that the unrest is an “attempted coup.” Demonstrators were met with heavy-handed tactics by police, including the use of live ammunition, tear gas and water cannons. Moreover, at least 1,500 people have been arrested in connection with the violent protests that have escalated this year.

The recent wave of protests was sparked by the death of former teacher and blogger Albert Ojwang, who died in police custody last month after allegedly criticizing the deputy head of police. Outrage intensified when a police officer was filmed shooting and killing a street vendor who had been selling masks to protesters. In the aftermath, demonstrations erupted in Nairobi and quickly spread to western Kenya and the Rift Valley, with most major towns and cities experiencing unrest – unfolding nationwide at an unprecedented pace.

The movement began last summer in Nairobi in response to the now-withdrawn Finance Bill 2024, which proposed sweeping tax hikes on fuel, bread, diapers, sanitary products, and digital services. Though the bill was abandoned after mass unrest, the movement has evolved into a broader anti-establishment mobilization against endemic corruption, police brutality, and economic exclusion. The key drivers of the protests have overwhelmingly been Kenya’s youth, particularly those belonging to “Gen-Z,” many of which are of working age. According to the Federation of Kenya Employers, youths between the ages of 15 to 35 have the highest levels of unemployment at a staggering 67 percent.

The youth population rely on and heavily utilize technology, particularly artificial intelligence and social media, to spread their message and demands using hashtags such as #RutoMustGo and #EndPoliceBrutalityKE. Efforts to control the public narrative have also intensified parallel to the increasing violent repression and media censorship has been a primary tactic as Kenyan authorities have sought to censor live coverage of the protests, though this was quickly overturned. In addition, Ruto’s administration restricted internet access as well as access to Telegram ahead of the Saba Saba protests – as well as arresting several prominent opposition activists and engaging in intimidation of journalists.

Calls for President Ruto’s resignation have escalated, alongside warnings from Kenya’s opposition coalition – the United Opposition, comprising at least six parties – that they may seek his referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC). In an official statement, the coalition accused Kenyan police of operating as “a death squad in uniform.” President Ruto has previously faced ICC scrutiny; prior to assuming office, he was charged with crimes against humanity for his alleged role in orchestrating ethnic violence following the disputed 2007 elections. That post-election crisis resulted in widespread police brutality and ethnically targeted killings, leaving approximately 1,500 people dead. The case was dismissed in 2016 due to insufficient evidence.

There are growing concerns in Washington over unrest in Kenya, given Nairobi’s importance as a regional counterterrorism partner with the United States. Kenya has been at the forefront of fighting the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab, which has grown in strength in recent years, and remains capable of launching attacks not just in Somalia, but elsewhere throughout the region. Moreover, on July 16, an improvised explosive device (IED) blast killed three Kenyan soldiers patrolling the Kenya–Somalia border. Al-Shabaab also claimed attacks on Kenyan convoys the day before. The incident follows months of significant gains by the group in Somalia, with the recent attacks on Kenyan security personnel likely in retaliation for Kenya’s involvement in peacekeeping missions there.

With presidential elections in Kenya being held in September 2027, many analysts are concerned about a potential major shift in Kenya’s political landscape. The government may continue its repression and violence against the opposition, possibly solidifying a shift into an outright authoritarian regime. Alternatively, protestors and dissenting voices may prevail, shifting Kenya away this trajectory. Nevertheless, the election is still over two years away. The opposition is also weak and fractured – in the meantime, it is likely that President Ruto’s government will continue its violent crackdown on protestors and opposition figures, making the emergence of a viable alternative in the 2027 election increasingly difficult. While protestors have voiced their commitment to speaking out under repression, sustaining this effort will likely prove to be challenging.