February 14, 2025

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Trump Administration Focusing on Threat Posed by Mexican Drug Cartels

AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

The Trump administration has promised to crack down on the threat posed by Mexican drug cartels, which are responsible for smuggling and trafficking narcotics and synthetic drugs into the United States, contributing to the deadly fentanyl epidemic which has gripped the country for the past several years. Several outlets reported an increase in spy planes around the Baja Peninsula, indicating surveillance of cartel activity. Mexico is home to numerous violent drug-trafficking organizations, including the Sinaloa Cartel, Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas, Beltran Leyva Organization, and La Familia Michoacan, among many smaller groups. Using Navy P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and even the legendary U-2 spy plane, the U.S. is hoping to glean critical intelligence, including from signals and imagery, about the operations, organizations, and capabilities of the cartels.

In laying out the rationale behind designating Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terrorists, the Trump administration stated in the Executive Order:

“The Cartels functionally control, through a campaign of assassination, terror, rape, and brute force nearly all illegal traffic across the southern border of the United States. In certain portions of Mexico, they function as quasi-governmental entities, controlling nearly all aspects of society. The Cartels’ activities threaten the safety of the American people, the security of the United States, and the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere. Their activities, proximity to, and incursions into the physical territory of the United States pose an unacceptable national security risk to the United States.”

The Trump administration has made it clear that it plans to use the U.S. military to help with counternarcotics and border security. To date, approximately 3,600 U.S. soldiers have been sent to the border, including the recent deployment of a logistics brigade from the 18^th Airborne Corps at Fort Liberty in North Carolina. U.S. Marines have also been sent to Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, where detained migrants are being held. In the latest tariff standoff with Mexico, the tariffs were delayed for 30 days and in exchange, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 Mexican soldiers to the border.

While many Americans would agree that the government needs to adopt a much stronger approach to border security, there is a concern that designating the cartels as terrorist organizations could overly militarize Washington’s approach to counternarcotics. President Trump has threatened to bomb fentanyl labs and send U.S. Special Forces commands to assassinate the leaders of the cartels. U.S. military action on Mexican soil, even with the tacit approval of the government, would significantly alter the dynamics of the situation and could lead the cartels to retaliate against targets in the U.S.

While addressing the supply side of the drug trade is crucial, there also needs to be investment in reducing the demand-side for drugs, including rehabilitation and treatment. Another concern about designating cartels as terrorist organizations is that the listing of these groups could become diluted, as cartels and crime groups are conflated with terrorists and militias. Still, a tougher approach to preventing fentanyl from flooding the United States is long overdue. In addition to combating the cartels, the Trump administration needs to find a way to deal with the supply of precursor chemicals from China to Mexico. As Vanda Felbab-Brown has written in Congressional testimony, “small and middle-level actors in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries also appear to be the key perpetrators of regulatory violations and source for Mexican criminal groups.”

President Trump used China’s role as a supplier of fentanyl and precursor chemicals to the United States and Mexico to justify a recently announced additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The tariffs appear to be an effort by the Trump administration to hold China accountable for “poisonous fentanyl and other drugs from flowing into our country.” Chinese officials have been quick to deny its role and responsibility in America’s fentanyl crisis, citing it as a domestic issue. Additionally, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian has accused the U.S. of “disregarding our fruitful cooperation” regarding its efforts in curbing the fentanyl trade and sale of precursor chemicals throughout recent years, such as its ban on fentanyl during Trump’s first administration in 2019 and bi-lateral coordination on counternarcotics between China and the U.S. The tariffs are not expected to have much of an impact on the fentanyl trade but may very possibly affect the bi-lateral counternarcotics cooperation, according to Felbab-Brown, further fraying the already delicate relationship between the U.S. and China.

Further, U.S. tariffs on Chinese chemical imports have also unintentionally shifted production of fentanyl to Canada. With Chinese suppliers facing higher costs and stricter scrutiny, the Sinaloa Cartel has increasingly relied on Candian-based operations where precursor chemicals still arrive through well-established Chinese or regional criminal networks. This shift has turned Canada into a major hub for fentanyl manufacturing with labs operating across British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta. The Sinaloa Cartel, working closely with local Canadian gangs like the Hells Angels, has streamlined trafficking routes, exploiting the less-patrolled northern U.S. border to move fentanyl into American cities.

Drug trafficking in North America remains highly adaptable, as evidenced by the Sinaloa Cartel's ability to exploit the northern border to traffic fentanyl into the U.S. While the Trump administration's strategy underscores a strong commitment to dismantling cartel networks, its long-term success hinges on balancing enforcement with efforts to reduce both supply and demand through sustained international cooperation and domestic policy reforms. However, by designating cartels as terrorist organizations, deploying military assets for surveillance and border security, and imposing tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, Trump risks alienating key partners, potentially undermining broader efforts to combat illicit trade.