August 25, 2025

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Talking and Fighting Intersect in Gaza

AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi

The Gaza conflict continues to defy U.S. and regional efforts to achieve a resolution, as both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas see leverage in pursuing the fighting while also indicating openness to a negotiated settlement. Last week, developments on both diplomacy as well as military tracks accelerated, as Israel moved forward with its plans to try to conquer Hamas strongholds while Hamas leaders nominally accepted an Arab proposal for another 60-day ceasefire and release of some of the Israeli hostages. Yet, neither U.S., regional, nor global officials seem clear on whether a settlement can be reached before Israeli operations worsen the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza or displace hundreds of thousands more Gaza civilians.

Even as negotiations between Hamas and regional mediators seemed to gain momentum in Cairo, optimism for a possible settlement diminished as Israel began implementing the plans Netanyahu announced earlier this month to militarily “conquer” remaining Hamas strongholds, particularly Gaza City. Following significant internal debate and opposition from military leaders who perceive that “eliminating” Hamas is an unattainable goal, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commanders finalized battle plans for the expanded ground operation last Sunday. On Wednesday, Defense Minister Israel Katz approved the call-up of about 60,000 military reservists needed for the operations, and the duty of another 20,000 reservists was extended. The IDF has begun launching intensive air strikes on Gaza City after announcing it had begun the first stage of its planned assault. By Friday, the IDF said its ground troops are "operating on the outskirts of Gaza City, locating and dismantling terrorist infrastructure above and underground." In an effort to force Hamas’ surrender, Defense Minister Katz warned that Gaza City could "turn into Rafah and Beit Hanoun" — areas that were destroyed earlier in the war, unless Hamas agrees to Israel's terms. However, experts assessed that Hamas would be able to survive the offensive, helped by its warren of tunnels below Gaza, rendering the strategic value of Israel’s expanded campaign uncertain.

Global officials and aid agencies express major concerns that the expanded Israeli offensive will worsen an already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. On Friday, as the IDF began pressuring Gaza City, a United Nations-backed multi-agency food security monitoring mechanism formally determined that a situation of famine existed there. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) raised its rating for the Gaza City region to Phase 5 — the highest and worst level on its acute food insecurity scale. The IPC itself does not have the institutional authority to declare a famine formally, but its classifications can inform decision-makers in governments and bodies such as the UN. Additionally, aid agencies warned the expanded IDF operation could force hundreds of thousands of people to flee, precipitating an even more profound humanitarian crisis.

Fearing the humanitarian consequences, many global officials expressed concern at the lack of U.S. effort to head off the Israeli military operation. U.S. officials have, in recent weeks, directly contradicted Netanyahu’s assertions that “there is no starvation in Gaza,” and have pressed his government, with some success, to open up additional channels for aid deliveries to the enclave. However, the Trump foreign policy team has, for now, otherwise downshifted its involvement in the Gaza conflict, focusing instead on diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Far from taking issue with the expanded Gaza offensive, Trump aligned the U.S. with its goals. He wrote on social media last Monday: “We will only see the return of the remaining hostages when Hamas is confronted and destroyed!!! He added: “The sooner this takes place, the better the chances of success will be.”

Observing the Trump team would not try to rein in Netanyahu’s push on Gaza City, and fearing the consequences of the operation, the two key Arab mediators, Egypt and Qatar, intensified their efforts to forge at least a temporary halt to the fighting. Articulating concerns that the Israeli offensive might push Gaza Palestinians to cross the border into Egypt, Egyptian officials last week resumed talks with a Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo, according to Egyptian sources briefed on the talks. In conjunction with the other key Arab mediator, Qatar, Cairo presented to Hamas a deal similar to an earlier framework developed by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. It provides for an initial 60-day truce, during which more than half of the remaining hostages held in Gaza (50 total, of which 20 are believed still alive) would be released in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid would be surged into the enclave through the United Nations and international nongovernmental organizations, supplanting the U.S.-Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which has largely failed. However, in a departure from the previous proposal, talks over a “comprehensive and permanent ceasefire” would begin on the first day of the temporary truce — not toward the end of the ceasefire period. The promise of immediate talks on a permanent end to the conflict seemed to address some of Hamas’ concerns. On Monday, senior Hamas official Basem Naim confirmed the group's approval of the offer on Facebook. Hamas said other Palestinian factions also informed mediators of their approval.

Experts assessed that Hamas’ acquiescence to the Egypt-Qatar offer reflected the intensifying internal and Arab pressure on Hamas to end the fighting. In a significant development, Arab countries last month came out publicly for the first time in favor of disarming Hamas, a demand Israel considers non-negotiable if it is to agree to withdraw from Gaza and end the war. Arab officials attending a UN conference endorsed disarmament if it came in the context of an end to the 22-month war and movement toward a Palestinian state. Although many Arab officials had expressed that position in private, experts such as Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted the significance of a public declaration to that effect. He told journalists: “This adds pressures on Hamas by empowering its leaders based outside Gaza — who are mostly seen as more moderate than the military wing inside the enclave — to push for a compromise." H.A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, noted that, in the flurry of diplomacy last week, Cairo pressed Hayya to agree that Hamas should not retain a weapons arsenal after a peace settlement. Several previous rounds of ceasefire talks have collapsed over Hamas’ resistance to disarming and its demands for stronger guarantees that Israel could not resume fighting later. Yet, one expert, AIbrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian political analyst close to Hamas, said the group “…will not raise the white flag,” but the movement — including its military wing — “prefers that the war stop now.”

Netanyahu’s response to the renewed diplomacy reflected the pressure on his government — from Israelis, Washington, and other actors — to end the conflict. Even as the IDF began to move on Gaza City on Thursday, Netanyahu responded to the Egypt-Qatar proposal that Hamas accepted. He stated Israel would immediately resume negotiations for the release of all hostages held in Gaza and an end to the nearly two-year-old war — but on terms acceptable to Israel. Israeli officials said negotiators would be dispatched to resume talks once a location is set. Although Trump’s team had shifted in recent weeks toward backing a permanent conflict termination deal rather than another temporary ceasefire, U.S. officials will likely support any deal that ends the fighting, even if only temporarily. Additionally, regional mediators sought to put pressure on Israel to accept the new offer by noting that it meets the demands Netanyahu had previously agreed to. Qatari foreign ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said at a news conference Tuesday that the new proposal was “very positive and closely aligned with what Israel had previously accepted.” Still, whether Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire proposal might depend on Israeli calculations of the degree to which the expanded Gaza offensive will succeed in causing Hamas to capitulate by agreeing to disarm. That view encapsulated Defense Minister Katz’s reaction to Hamas’ acceptance of the Egypt-Qatar proposal, saying last week: “For the first time, after weeks in which Hamas was unwilling to discuss any deal for the release of hostages, suddenly it is on the table…The reason is clear: Only their fear that we are serious about conquering Gaza.”