September 5, 2024

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Egyptian Support to Somalia Furthers Rift Between Cairo and Addis Ababa

AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh

Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have increased further after Cairo signed a defense pact with Mogadishu, and now Egypt is making moves to send troops, weapons, and ammunition to Somalia. The two countries are also planning to hold joint military exercises, including with ground, air, and naval forces. The partnership between Egypt and Somalia has angered Ethiopia, which is already at odds with Egypt over Addis Ababa’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which threatens to interfere with water and irrigation supply downstream in Egypt. While Ethiopia is moving ahead with the project in order to generate much-needed electricity, Cairo is understandably concerned with the impact that the dam could have on its population of 106 million people, which is dependent on the Nile River for nearly all of its freshwater needs. At risk, say the Egyptians, are its food supply and hundreds of thousands who rely on agriculture for jobs and basic sustenance. Egypt recently wrote a letter to the United Nations Security Council, protesting what it labeled as Ethiopia’s pursuit of “unilateral policies” on the GERD project.

Ethiopia and Somalia remain at loggerheads after Ethiopia initiated a port deal with Somaliland, a breakaway part of Somalia. Mogadishu fears that, in exchange for access to the port at Somaliland, Ethiopia could recognize the territory as an independent country. Somaliland declared that it was seceding from Somalia more than three decades ago, though Mogadishu still recognizes it as part of Somalia. Neither the African Union nor the United Nations recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Somalia has threatened to expel 10,000 Ethiopian troops presently in the country as part of the African Union peacekeeping force. The Egyptian troops are expected to help with training, as well as protecting Somali institutions and high-profile politicians. With Egypt sending troops to Somalia, it is unclear, as of yet, if Cairo’s deployment is intended to be a backfill or substitute for Ethiopia’s troops, although that seems likely. There are already growing concerns about Egyptian and Ethiopian troops operating in the same area of responsibility, but also concerns from Addis Ababa that it will have Egyptian troops just over its border. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry released a statement that said it “cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region.”

The political wrangling has weakened the counterterrorism fight against al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab, which continues to wreak havoc in Somalia and operate with near impunity. Islamic State also maintains a presence in the semi-autonomous Puntland region, further complicating the terrorism threat landscape in Somalia. Somalia has received support from the African Union peacekeeping mission since approximately 2007 to combat jihadist terrorists. If there are questions about the future of the mission, it could be replaced by bilateral agreements between Somalia and countries such as Uganda and Burundi, which currently have troops fighting against al-Shabaab.

Turkish-led peace talks between Somalia and Ethiopia have failed to gain traction, at least to date, although Ankara claims it remains committed to brokering an agreement as it looks to spread its own influence in the Horn of Africa. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud claims that Mogadishu is prepared to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia,” but a key component of this is that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.” Türkiye has also agreed to help Somalia, signing a ten-year defense deal earlier this year that will see Ankara send naval support to Somalia, as well as an exploration vessel to prospect for oil and gas off the coastline. Meanwhile, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hosted Egyptian President Abdel Fateh el-Sisi for his first ever visit to Türkiye, where the two leaders pledged to continue improving bilateral ties while also working to address a number of regional concerns. After over a decade of hostilities, there is clearly a nascent rapprochement between Ankara and Cairo, with the leaders signing more than seventeen separate agreements covering a range of issues to cooperate across.

A more pronounced rift between Egypt and Ethiopia over Somalia would further destabilize an already volatile region. The ongoing war in Sudan has led to mass displacement throughout East Africa, with more than 2 million Sudanese fleeing the country. The continued fallout from the attacks of October 7, Israel’s response, and the ebb and flow of attacks by Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ means that attacks by the Houthi movement in the Red Sea have spiked, while Egypt has suffered from declining revenues typically generated by the Suez Canal, the body of water linking the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. Egypt hopes that its naval partnership with Somalia may help to stabilize actions in the Bab El Mandeb Strait.

While most analysts focusing on great power competition assess the means and motives of countries like China, Russia, and the United States, the phenomenon is also playing out at a regional level, with second-tier or middle powers like Türkiye, Egypt, and smaller Gulf countries flexing their muscle and working through proxies to recalibrate the balance of power in countries like Sudan, Libya, Somalia, and elsewhere. As the United States remains focused on supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia and working to mediate the ongoing tensions related to Israel’s war with Hamas, other regions of the world are being afforded less bandwidth, which opens the door to regional actors meddling in weaker countries, often perpetuating conflict, rather than playing a stabilizing role.