September 30, 2024

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Will Nasrallah Killing Change Mideast War Equation?

AP Photo/Vahid Salemi

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed that Israeli air strikes on six apartment buildings in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of south Beirut had killed its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israel used U.S.-supplied 2,000 pound ‘bunker buster’ bombs in the onslaught. The bombing raid, which Israel claimed was a self-defense attack on Hezbollah’s command center, also reportedly killed Ali Karki, the commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and at least eight other Hezbollah commanders. Also killed, according to press reports, were several officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Qods Force (IRGC-QF), including IRGC General Abbas Nilforoushan, identified and sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department as the deputy commander for IRGC-QF operations. Nilforoushan was sanctioned for his role in suppressing the months-long protests in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest and death in custody two years ago.

Israeli’s systematic attempt to dismantle Hezbollah was set in motion a week before the Nasrallah assassination, when thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives exploded simultaneously, injuring as many as 1,500 militants and wounding many others. Israeli intelligence focused on disrupting Hezbollah’s command-and-control structure and severely impacting the ability of its personnel to communicate with each other. Relying on spy satellites, unmanned aerial systems, human intelligence, and world-class hacking capabilities, Israel’s vast intelligence dragnet proved crucial to its campaign to eliminate the upper echelon of Hezbollah’s leadership, leaving the group reeling, at least for now.

The strike that killed Nasrallah represented a massive Israeli escalation against Hezbollah’s command structure and military infrastructure that began with the late July attack that killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr. Israel intensified its campaign on key Hezbollah leaders in and around Beirut last Monday, killing more than 700 persons, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. Hezbollah, in turn, has escalated its missile and rocket attacks on Israel, firing deeper into the country, including at least one strike on Tel Aviv – the furthest point Hezbollah has ever attacked since it was formed in the early 1980s. While some have called this the end of Hezbollah, it may very well be the beginning of another deadly phase to the long-running conflict between the militant group and Israel. And while Israel’s tactical maneuvers have been effective, it remains to be determined if these strikes are tied to a broader strategy.

Israeli leaders admit that decapitating the organization will not eliminate it from Lebanon or even compel it to disarm its militia, which Hezbollah characterizes as an independent “resistance” force protecting Lebanon from Israeli power. Most experts assess that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is insufficiently capable of disarming Hezbollah or curbing its operations despite Israel’s attacks on the group. Inside Hezbollah, the group’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, automatically took over on an interim basis. However, most analyses suggest Hashim Safiuddin, the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who reportedly survived the Friday strike, will be selected the permanent replacement. Safiuddin is a Nasrallah relative and designated successor who has close ties to the IRGC-QF; his son is married to the daughter of the revered IRGC-QF commander, Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. strike in January 2020.

Even if Hezbollah’s leadership is reconstituted and the group remains potent, Israeli leaders expect that demonstrating an ability to take out the group’s top leadership, as well as significant portions of its rocket and missile arsenal, will help accomplish what Israeli officials describe as “limited objectives.” The objectives include the cessation of Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel and a Hezbollah pull back of its forces off the Israel-Lebanon border, as well as forcing Hezbollah to treat the escalation on the Israeli border and the ongoing war in Gaza as separate issues. U.S., French, and regional mediators have been attempting to persuade Hezbollah to accept those conditions since October 8, when clashes broke out after Hezbollah began shelling northern Israel.

Hezbollah hoped to tie down Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the north to relieve pressure on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The clashes have caused 65,000 Israelis and 90,000 Lebanese to relocate from their towns. Hezbollah has refused to redeploy or stop its attacks on northern Israel unless and until the Gaza war ends. Diplomats have sought to fashion a compromise under which Hezbollah would redeploy its elite Radwan unit at least six miles north of the border. That repositioning would meet some of the demands of U.N. Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, and which stipulates Hezbollah not deploy any forces south of the Litani River (about 18 miles north of the border).

However, with diplomacy stalled in its efforts to de-escalate either the northern front or the Gaza war, and the war in Gaza evolving into a counterinsurgency mission, Netanyahu and his aides have focused on securing the northern border to enable the Israelis to return to their homes. In mid-September Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli Security Cabinet signaled Israel would put significant military pressure on Hezbollah by formally expanding the goals of the Gaza war to include the return of Israelis to their homes in northern Israel. That declaration, along with the subsequent strikes on Hezbollah’s leaders and arsenal, represented an Israeli intent to continue pressuring Hezbollah militarily until it accedes to Israel’s demands.

As Hezbollah begins to retaliate for Nasrallah’s death by striking Israel, U.S., French, and regional diplomats are expected to revive their previously unsuccessful mediation efforts. A joint statement by U.S., Western, and several Arab powers on Wednesday, as Israel’s air campaign was escalating, called for a 21-day ceasefire. According to the statement by the U.S., European powers, Australia, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar: “We call on all parties, including the Governments of Israel and Lebanon, to endorse the temporary ceasefire immediately consistent with UNSCR 1701 during this period, and to give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement.” U.S. officials told journalists they understood Israel had accepted the ceasefire proposal, but Netanyahu’s speech before the U.N. General Assembly’s 79^th session on Friday, just hours before the strike on Nasrallah, clearly telegraphed that he would not cease Israel’s attacks until the threat from Hezbollah to the northern communities ended.

Netanyahu has calculated that his government would face no significant consequences for escalating the battle against Hezbollah. And, reflecting a U.S. reluctance or inability to try to restrain Israeli actions, President Biden’s statement reacting to the Nasrallah killing expressed that the “The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups. Just yesterday, I directed my Secretary of Defense to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. military forces in the Middle East region to deter aggression and reduce the risk of a broader regional war. Ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means.” The U.S. response to the Nasrallah killing, and to Israeli escalation against Hezbollah in general, clearly reflects the fact that the U.S. continues to view Hezbollah as largely a terrorist group responsible for attacks on U.S forces and diplomats in the early 1980s as well as acts of terrorism against Israeli diplomats and tourists in the 1990s and beyond.

The apparent lack of Western and Arab leverage to restrain Israel has led some experts to assess Israel might ultimately combine its air operations with a ground operation against Hezbollah positions in south Lebanon. Israel was observed to be moving forces to the northern border in recent weeks, although it is still unclear whether a ground offensive might be launched. Doing so is considered risky and likely to cause a large number of IDF casualties, in part because Hezbollah forces in south Lebanon are better positioned to attack IDF infantry than to counter Israeli air strikes.

Even if they have been unable to de-escalate the Gaza and Lebanon fronts, U.S. and Western officials have consistently sought since October 7 to prevent hostilities from expanding throughout the region. But that goal has been left more uncertain by the Nasrallah killing than was the case prior. U.S. and regional officials are seeking to determine how the Islamic Republic of Iran, in particular, might respond. Tehran has an organic political, military, and ideological relationship with Hezbollah since the group’s founding in the early 1980s. Initial indications suggested Iran would likely continue to refrain from directly entering into the conflict in support of Hezbollah. Experts assessed Iranian leaders calculate that the group, no matter the damage Israel inflicts, can ultimately rebuild its leadership structure and its forces and re-emerge as a key threat to Israel. According to that apparent calculation, there is no need for Iran to risk a devastating war against Israel, and especially against the United States, to retaliate for Israel’s recent strikes. Iran has not implemented a threat to retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hamas’ top leader Ismail Haniyeh, on Iranian territory on July 31.

Further suggesting Iran wants to stay on the sidelines militarily, in the immediate aftermath of Nasrallah’s killing, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stopped short of calling for revenge, and instead declared that Israel would “regret its actions.” He added: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront.” Some reports suggested he had been moved to a safe location, apparently fearing Israel might extend its air campaign into the Islamic Republic itself. The Supreme Leader’s position suggests he wants to avoid an open disagreement with elected leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose Wednesday UNGA address stated Iran wants to play “a constructive role in the region,” and offered a restart of talks to restore U.S. and Iranian compliance with the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). Tehran apparently is content to allow Hezbollah to respond to the Nasrallah killing on its own, and perhaps in concert with the Houthi movement in Yemen, which has recently begun firing some of their Iran-supplied missiles against Israel.