September 27, 2024

SHARE |

The Strategic Targeting of Ukraine’s Energy and Nuclear Facilities

AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

Russia launched targeted air strikes on energy facilities in the northeastern city of Sumy in Ukraine early last week. The attack reduced power in parts of the city, forcing it to rely on back-up power sources, depleting necessary resources as the region prepares for the winter months where demand rises as temperatures drop below freezing. According to Reuters, “Ukraine's energy ministry said Russia's attacks had caused a fire at a power substation and cut power to more than 281,000 consumers.” Russia has continuously utilized critical infrastructure as a prime target during its invasion of Ukraine, including strikes on energy facilities and power grids.

The Yale School of Public Health’s (YSPH) Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL), with research support from the Ukraine Digital Verification Lab (UDVL) at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy published a report in February on Russian attacks on Ukrainian power generation and transmission infrastructure from October 2022 to April 2023. The report found that between the timeframe of the study, there were 66 confirmed Russian attacks on Ukrainian power generation and transmission infrastructure, with an additional 157 incidents of damage to these sites. Further, the report concluded that “the geospatial and temporal distributions of these incidents, in conjunction with statements on the attacks from public officials and state-sponsored media in Russia, appear consistent with a widespread and systematic effort to cripple vital power generation and transmission infrastructure across Ukraine.”

The targeting of critical infrastructure like energy facilities can not only debilitate power generation, but, depending on the energy source, can create catastrophic destruction. In March 2022, Russian artillery fire struck a training center at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, causing a fire and sparking international concern. Though the shelling did not hit or affect any of the six reactors, Russian troops continued to occupy the plant, despite cooling all the reactors. After this attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency warned of the “extreme risks” of waging war in such areas. In July 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution demanding Russia return the nuclear plant to Ukraine, however this has yet to occur. With 15 nuclear reactors in Ukraine –– generating about half of Ukraine’s electricity –– and 36 in Russia, the targeting of these systems leaves too much room for a potential nuclear disaster.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, addressing this very topic. In his speech, Zelenskyy emphasized the dangers of Russia targeting critical infrastructure, and its effect on the Ukrainian people, stating that “80 percent of [Ukraine’s] energy system is gone.” Further, he mentioned that Russia has destroyed all of Ukraine’s thermal power plants as well as a large amount of its hydroelectric capacity. He then purported that these targets are part of Putin’s strategy “to leave them in the dark and cold this winter, forcing Ukraine to suffer and surrender,” as experts have estimated that blackouts this winter could last 20 hours or more a day.

Since the initial failure of the full-scale Russian invasion, the Kremlin has sought to undermine the Ukrainian people’s will to fight by targeting civilian infrastructure, including soft targets and cultural heritage sites. By further increasing the costs of the war for ordinary Ukrainians, Russia hopes to erode popular support for continued resistance and expedite the possibility of a negotiated settlement on the Kremlin’s terms. A severe winter could also strain the energy reserves of some European countries, especially Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria. Any economic impacts that can be tied to the war in Ukraine may strengthen support for pro-Russian political parties in Europe, further undermining European Union support for Ukraine.

Addressing Russia’s focus on Ukraine’s nuclear energy facilities, Zelenskyy emphasized the dangers of Russia’s strategies and warned of the possible outcomes of these actions, including nuclear disaster. He then recalled that the attack at Zaporizhzhia reminded “everyone in Ukraine ... of what Chornobyl means.” Nuclear safety is the first point included in Zelenskyy’s “Peace Formula,” which states: “Ukrainian nuclear power plants and installations must operate safely under full sovereign control of Ukraine. Russian troops shall be withdrawn from the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and its territory shall be completely demilitarized.”

Though much of the international focus has been on Russia’s targeting of Ukrainian energy facilities, Russia has made claims of its own that Ukraine is planning to target Russian nuclear facilities. In late August, Russia accused Ukraine of trying to attack the Kursk nuclear power plant; however, there is no evidence suggesting Ukrainian forces attempted to do so. Rather, the accusation is likely another disinformation campaign from Russia to manipulate international fears of a nuclear threat for political gain against Ukraine following Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk in early August.

While Russia’s tactics threaten the possibility of nuclear disaster, they are also a departure from international norms. Russia is a signatory to the Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions, particularly Article 56 of the Additional Protocol which, according to William Alberque, Director of Strategy, Technology and Arms Control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “nuclear power plants ‘shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives’ unless the generation of the electrical power provides direct support to military operations.” Russia’s actions have made clear that the long-standing norm that governments ensure nuclear security and actively promote global cooperation in this area has been called into question.

As Western partners struggle to bolster Ukraine’s air defense, a recent shipment of 200 Iranian Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia has sparked major concern for Ukraine’s energy systems. Unlike Ukraine, which is still limited by restrictions on the use of Western supplied long-range weapon systems, Russia faces no such constraints. An early September statement by Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder noted that these missiles “are believed to have a range of about 75 miles and would allow Russians to reserve more advanced missiles with longer ranges for other uses.”

Replenishing its short-range ballistic missile arsenal with the Fath-360 will allow Russia to dedicate its longer-range missiles to deep strikes targeting critical civilian and military infrastructure as far away as central Ukraine. Despite international assistance and concerted efforts within the Ukrainian energy sector to decentralize energy production, most of Ukraine’s power is generated in large plants, leaving it vulnerable to continued Russian strikes. However, U.S. President Joe Biden announced $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine yesterday, including $2.4 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with “additional air defense, Unmanned Aerial Systems, and air-to-ground munitions,” according to Biden. As Russian forces continue their incremental advance toward key cities in the Donbas, Ukrainian officials are preparing the civilian population for what will likely be the most difficult winter of the war so far.