INTELBRIEF
September 25, 2024
Israel Continues to Bombard Lebanon as Humanitarian Situation Deteriorates Rapidly
Bottom Line Up Front
- Nearly 600 people have been killed and over 1,800 people injured as of Tuesday in Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
- The recent escalation of the conflict is the deadliest in almost two decades, displacing tens of thousands in southern Lebanon and Israel earlier this week, according to a UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) spokesperson.
- With the number of displaced civilians continuing to rise alongside the violence, the most vulnerable Lebanese residents – including those already internally displaced, refugees, and children – are the most at risk.
- U.S. efforts to end the ongoing round of fighting through diplomatic means have thus far failed, while Israel has vowed to continue striking Hezbollah, ensuring that the war will continue for the foreseeable future.
Nearly 600 people have been killed and over 1,800 people injured as of Tuesday in Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets, missiles, and drones over the weekend into northern Israel in retaliation for the pager explosions that targeted Hezbollah members last week. At least 50 children were among those killed in the strikes, according to the Lebanese health minister, Firass Abiad.
Images out of Lebanon showed chaotic, gridlocked highways as people attempted to escape southern Lebanon toward Beirut. Abiad stated that convoys of vehicles evacuating people from areas under fire had been “targeted” in the airstrikes, as well as two ambulances, a fire truck, and a medical center. UNHCR confirmed that two colleagues had been killed in an airstrike, with representatives from several UN humanitarian agencies calling for de-escalation and the protection of civilians.
The recent escalation of the conflict is the deadliest in almost two decades, displacing tens of thousands in southern Lebanon and Israel earlier this week, according to a UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) spokesperson. More than 16,500 have been displaced in Lebanon, according to the government, including from both the southern part of the country and the suburbs of Beirut hit by an Israeli airstrike targeting a Hezbollah commander. The numbers are likely to continue to grow, adding to the 112,000 people previously displaced due to cross-border exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah since last October, according to the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) deputy representative for Lebanon, Ettie Higgins. The recent displacement is the largest the country has experienced since war erupted between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
Earlier this week, the Israeli military warned residents in southern Lebanon to immediately evacuate their homes and other buildings in anticipation of the strikes, with tens of thousands of people receiving mobile phone alerts from the Israeli military instructing civilians to stay away from places where Hezbollah stores weapons. The messages assumed that civilians were aware of arms storage locations and, according to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) spokesperson, caused “panic, fear, and chaos” among civilians.
Over 20,000 people are estimated to already be sheltering in buildings and centers designated by authorities as public shelters, according to the Lebanese caretaker interior minister, Bassam Mawlawi. As people continue to stream into the capital, many reportedly with just the clothes on their back, the education minister both extended the closure of schools and universities and ordered public schools to receive displaced Lebanese civilians. The sudden influx of civilians in the capital not only presents challenges with providing housing, but also other basic necessities. Hospitals have been instructed to stop taking regular or light cases to make space for the wounded, and the country faces a steep challenge to providing care to displaced civilians with cancer, kidney failure, or other chronic diseases to continue their treatment.
With the number of displaced civilians continuing to rise alongside the violence, the most vulnerable Lebanese residents – including those already internally displaced, refugees, and children – are the most at risk. An estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees reside in the country and face renewed displacement and uncertainty, according to the UNHCR. UNICEF’s deputy representative emphasized in a press conference yesterday that further escalation in the hostilities would be “absolutely catastrophic” for all children in Lebanon, particularly those from the eastern part of the country who had to flee their homes due to the violence.
Few have an answer to the question plaguing the region right now, which is, when will the carnage end? The Israelis have made it clear that their current offensive will not cease until they have pushed Hezbollah back from the border. To cement this objective, Israel has made the return of its citizens to the north of the country part of its broader war aims. The ongoing Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah kicked off in earnest on Tuesday, when a widespread detonation of pagers belonging to Hezbollah killed and injured its members. The following day, walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah also exploded. The two-day death toll is hovering around 37, with an additional 3,000 wounded in the coordinated attacks.
Even as Israel has successfully eliminated myriad members of Hezbollah’s leadership, including most recently Ibrahim Akil, who was the head of Hezbollah’s operations and the commander of its elite special forces unit known as the Radwan Force. Israel claims that in the last several days, its airstrikes have hit more than 1,000 targets across Lebanon, where it is seeking to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, especially its rocket launcher sites. However, Hezbollah retains a vast arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles that make a ground invasion of Lebanon a risky endeavor for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Israel and Hezbollah fought a 34-day war back in July 2006, in which Israel inflicted devastating blows against the group, only for it to come back even stronger over time. Just as with the situation in Gaza, there are serious questions about whether Israel’s ongoing campaign is tied to any broader strategy, or, on the contrary, if this is merely a set of tactical engagements designed to temporarily attenuate Hezbollah’s forces.
In an effort to bring more military muscle into the region in the event of a broader conflagration, the United States announced on Monday that it was deploying the USS Harry Truman, two Navy destroyers, and a cruiser to the region. “In light of increased tension in the Middle East and out of an abundance of caution, we are sending a small number of additional U.S. military personnel forward to augment our forces that are already in the region” said Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder. Speaking at the UN General Assembly yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden referenced the conflict in optimistic tones, stating that “A solution is still possible. In fact, it remains the only path to lasting security and to allow the residents of both countries to return to their homes.” Still, even as Israel’s closest ally, the U.S. has been unable to successfully translate its diplomatic efforts into tangible and lasting progress toward conflict resolution. Meanwhile, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed yesterday to continue striking Hezbollah, suggesting there was no end in sight for the latest round of fighting, with more devastation inevitable.