September 18, 2024

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Thousands Wounded in Pager Explosions Targeting Hezbollah Members

AP Photo/Bassam Masri

Hundreds of pagers blew up at the same time yesterday across Lebanon and parts of Syria in what appeared to be a coordinated attack targeting members of Hezbollah, according to both Lebanese and Hezbollah officials. At least nine people were killed, including a young girl, and over 2,800 people were seriously injured as of late Tuesday, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Approximately 200 people are reportedly in critical condition, with footage broadcast on Lebanese television displaying chaotic scenes at hospitals as the wounded waited for treatment. Many victims had injuries to their faces, eyes, hands, and stomachs, according to health officials. Iranian Ambassador Mojtaba Amini was also among the injured, although sustaining minor injuries, according to Iranian state media reports.

The operation reportedly targeted hundreds of Hezbollah personnel using explosive devices planted inside of pagers. For years, hoping to shield themselves from foreign intelligence agencies, Hezbollah’s leadership have used pagers as a secure means of communication. According to experts, the use of pagers had become more widespread in the wake of the October 7 attack by Hamas, after Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that Israeli intelligence had compromised access to some of the phones Hezbollah was using to communicate. According to Lebanese journalist Kim Ghattas, Hezbollah had recently “gone low tech” in an attempt to prevent more of its operatives from being tracked and assassinated. The pagers that exploded were new and had been purchased in recent months, according to a Lebanese security source who spoke with CNN.

According to some reports, malware may have been used to trigger the explosion of the pagers' batteries, or an explosive charge might have been placed in each device as part of a supply chain attack, allowing them to be detonated remotely. Either scenario suggests the involvement of a state actor capable of executing such a highly sophisticated operation. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government blame Israel for the attack, with Hezbollah threatening retaliation and claiming that their forces were ready to defend their border from Israel, who they believe have made various “threatening speeches and comments” in the past days. By late Tuesday evening, the Israeli military had declined to comment on these accusations.

The attack took place amid escalating tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, which has intensified in the aftermath of October 7. Israel and Hezbollah, along with other armed groups, have exchanged thousands of cross border attacks since October 7, leaving hundreds injured, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). One of the most intense exchanges occurred in late August, when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes on approximately 40 different locations in southern Lebanon, in an operation the IDF claimed was to deter an imminent large-scale attack by Hezbollah. Such an attack had been expected in retaliation for the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and deployed drones in retaliation for Israel’s airstrikes. Concerns that the cross-border skirmishes and broader tensions could spiral out of control triggering a wider regional conflagration have been mounting for months. So far, both sides have stopped short of all-out war.

However, experts have continued to voice concerns in recent weeks about the increasing likelihood of violence. Notably, regional expert Dexter Filkins warned of the significant risk of violence in Lebanon during The Soufan Center’s Global Summit on Terrorism and Political Violence last week. With the prospect of a peace deal in Gaza losing momentum, and Israel facing mounting pressure to fortify its northern border and return thousands of evacuated citizens, military action has reportedly become an increasingly favorable option for Israeli decisionmakers. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said earlier this week that the “dimming prospects for diplomacy were leaving military action as the only alternative.”

While at the time of publication there is not enough information to officially attribute the coordinated explosion to any specific actor, there are indications that point to Israel’s involvement. The attack fits within a broader pattern of Israeli tradecraft and also dovetails with a covert campaign Israel has been waging against its adversaries for years, which accelerated following the October 7 attacks. Israel has previously utilized communication devices for targeted killings. In 1996, Hamas bomb-maker Yahya Ayyash was assassinated by Mossad using an exploding cell phone. More recently, Israel’s targeted assassination campaign has so far killed Hamas deputy political leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut in January and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in late July, in addition to Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh days later.

If Israel is responsible for the attacks, the objective may have been to send a clear message that it still possesses the capability to strike and disrupt Hezbollah’s activities at will. The operation may also have been intended to degrade Hezbollah’s command and control on a scale not yet seen in previous examples of targeted killings, leaving the group without the critical mid and upper-level leadership responsible for preparing and sustaining the organization during a prolonged conflict. An attack of this magnitude could temporarily impair Hezbollah's capacity to respond to a crisis along the border, though the extent of its impact remains uncertain. It seems prudent that Hezbollah will follow this attack with a massive overhaul of its internal security apparatus, reviewing vulnerabilities in its operational security and moving to stricter protocols for its tradecraft.