September 17, 2024

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Another Attempted Assassination of Former President Trump Signals Rising Tide of Political Violence

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Over the weekend, there was another assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, although unlike the incident in Butler, PA in July, the attempted assassin was apparently unable to fire any shots at the former president. The 58-year-old man arrested in the most recent case, Ryan Routh, was charged yesterday with two federal gun charges: possessing a firearm as a felon and possessing a firearm with an obliterated serial number. The suspected gunman was previously arrested in December 2002 and charged with possession of a weapon of mass destruction, for being in possession of a fully automatic machine gun.

On Sunday afternoon in West Palm Beach, Florida, Routh was allegedly spotted by Secret Service agents after they noticed a rifle sticking out of a perimeter fence near the golf course where Trump was playing. The agents fired several shots, after which Routh seems to have fled, leaving behind his weapon, an AK-47- style rifle with a scope, as well as a Go-Pro camera. A cursory review of Routh’s social media profiles indicates that he repeatedly expressed anti-Trump views, and was also outspoken against China, he was pro-Taiwan, pro-Ukraine (he volunteered to help recruit foreign fighters), and frequently engaged with COVID-19 conspiracy theories. According to the Financial Times, Routh was turned down by the Ukrainians in his efforts to join the foreign legion, with concerns over his erratic behavior and lack of military experience.

Yet another assassination attempt against Trump is certain to ratchet up the already tense partisan nature of the American political system. A highly polarized political climate, amplified by extreme rhetoric, including often violent rhetoric which has been mainstreamed and normalized, presents a major challenge in the weeks leading up to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. With both Democrats and Republicans framing the other side as an existential threat to the country, individuals are being inundated with messages that have exacerbated an already volatile situation.

Further, the recent spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories online, particularly around anti-immigrant views, has only served to further amplify societal tensions and provide broader opportunities for extremists to mainstream false and hateful narratives. Both former President Trump and current vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance, among other political commentators and influencers, have continued to spread the debunked, false narrative that Haitian migrants were abducting and eating people’s pets in Springfield, Ohio. Trump and Vance, among others, have attempted to tie the false narrative with broader anti-immigrant stances.

The narrative has also been amplified by far-right extremists, such as the leader of the neo-Nazi group Blood Tribe who took credit on Telegram for mainstreaming the narrative the day after the presidential debate. Members of the group reiterated this sentiment, with a user on Gab stating that “the president is talking about it now” and “this is what real power looks like.” The Blood Tribe had worked to amplify the false narrative in the weeks leading up to the presidential debate, demonstrating how far-right extremists are capitalizing on political tensions and polarization and mainstreaming their propaganda. These false narratives have already resulted in threats of violence, with bomb threats connected to the rumors forcing schools in Springfield to close and be evacuated for multiple days. Not only does this highlight how online narratives can translate into potential real-world violence, but also how far-right extremists continue to mobilize ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

A low digital literacy rate, not just among older Americans but among younger generations as well, combined with the proliferation of disinformation, has led to growing anger and anxiety among Americans, and resulted in an endless threat stream directed against elected officials and politicians. Trump’s supporters, especially his base, will be energized by yet another assassination attempt against the former president, whom they now see as under siege from his opponents. There will likely be further scrutiny placed on the Secret Service, as initial reporting suggests that Routh had been skulking around the vicinity of the golf course for a full twelve hours before he was identified.

While many are rightly concerned about violence in the lead up to the presidential election in November, there is even more angst over what could happen following the election. If former President Trump is re-elected, many expect a visceral reaction from segments of the far-left, including some who may resort to violence. If Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris wins election in November, there is serious concern over violence waged by Trump supporters who may believe that the election was rigged, or ‘stolen,’ as Trump claimed in 2020, leading to the “Stop the Steal” movement and ultimately, drawing a direct line to the January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection.

With approximately seven weeks until the presidential election, it seems that more and more Americans feel that resorting to political violence is an acceptable means of engaging with the electoral process. A nationwide poll taken this summer by political scientist Robert Pape from the University of Chicago found that 10 percent of Americans believe that the “use of force is justified to prevent Donald Trump from becoming president.” In a country the size of the United States, extrapolated out, that number equates to tens of millions of Americans.

The second assassination attempt in the course of a few months could lead to copycat attempts. Moreover, while most responsible individuals recognize the need to lower the temperature and tamp down violence, provocateurs like Elon Musk have sought to instigate others by pointing out that there haven't been any attempts against Harris, a comment likely to fuel conspiracy theories and lead to even more violent rhetoric and overt threats against political leaders.