September 16, 2024

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Iran’s Missile Delivery to Russia Triggers Western Backlash

Iranian Army via AP

During a press briefing last week, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder stated: "The United States has confirmed reports that Iran has transferred shipments of Fath 360 close-range ballistic missiles to Russia, which we assess could employ them within weeks against Ukraine, leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians." He added that right now, U.S. officials have not determined how many missiles are involved, but some press reports claimed Iran might have delivered up to 200 of the weapons. Iran reportedly proceeded with the transfer by loading the weapons on a Russian ship that docked on Iran’s Caspian Sea coast.

The Fath 360 missiles are believed to have a range of about 75 miles – appropriate for targeting Ukraine’s front-line installations and troop emplacements. According to Ryder and other officials, the Iranian supplies will enable Russians to reserve more advanced missiles with longer ranges for other uses against targets in Ukraine. There are questions about the sophistication and accuracy of the Iranian missile, but experts assess that Russia’s campaign against Ukraine depends on its ability to deliver high volumes of munitions against Ukraine, and precision is secondary.

U.S. and European policymakers immediately assessed the likely battlefield and geopolitical implications of the delivery. According to Ryder: "The concerning aspect of this ... is the developing relationship between Russia and Iran…And you also see Russia developing a relationship with [North Korea], where they become essentially a supplier of capability. So, one has to assume that if Iran is providing Russia with these types of missiles, that it's very likely it would not be a one-time good deal, that this would be a source of capability that Russia would seek to tap in the future." U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during a visit to London to meet with his U.K. counterpart on the Ukraine war and other matters, said that the new supply of Iranian missiles will allow Russia to use more of its own longer-range ballistic missiles for targets that are farther from the frontline.

Anticipating the U.S. and its allies would immediately impose consequences on Iran for the delivery, Iranian officials sought to mitigate the Western backlash. Tehran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, a key part of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian’s new diplomatic team, tasked with rebuilding ties to the West amidst growing concerns over attacks by Iran’s Axis of Resistance, denied the delivery occurred. He claimed the United States and its allies were acting on “faulty intelligence.” In internal deliberations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Pezeshkian has argued for rebuilding ties to the West and avoiding actions that would hinder his efforts to achieve an easing of U.S.-led sanctions. The missile delivery sets back Pezeshkian’s intended foreign policy approach, although he appears to have had some success arguing Iran should not respond militarily to Israel’s July 31 assassination of visiting Hamas top leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Tehran apparently had numerous motives to risk a Western backlash by proceeding with the delivery. Iran’s strategic relationship with Moscow has progressively deepened in the decade since Iran persuaded Russia to commit forces to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defeat a nationwide armed rebellion. That partnership motivated Iran to reciprocate by arming Russia with sophisticated drones for use against Ukraine – shipments that triggered earlier rounds of Western sanctions against Iran. There has been speculation that, in exchange for adding missiles to the file of Iranian arms supplies for Russia, Moscow might have committed to supply Tehran with additional nuclear technology. Tehran also hopes the missile supplies will persuade Russia to deliver the sophisticated Su-35 combat aircraft that Iran reportedly bought several years ago, but shipment of which has been delayed by payments disputes and other opaque issues.

Iran might also try to leverage the missile shipments to persuade Russian officials to limit or block Israeli air operations that Israel has been using to great effect against Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Syria. Russia has sought to maintain good relations with Israel, but its war against Ukraine, expanding strategic alignment with Tehran, and criticism of Israeli tactics in Gaza have soured Russian-Israeli relations. The delivery of additional weaponry to Russia also increases the possibility, although still speculative, that Kyiv will undertake its own operations in the region to undermine the interests of both Tehran and Moscow. Syria would serve as the most likely theater for Ukrainian intelligence and special operations against Iranian and Russian facilities and personnel there, although Ukraine is not currently known to be conducting any operations inside Syria.

As was expected, the Iranian ballistic missile delivery triggered an immediate and significant reaction from the U.S. and its European counterparts in the form of additional sanctions – the exact opposite of the sanctions relief Pezeshkian seeks to achieve. Last week, the United States, Britain, France, and Germany announced significant new economic measures in response to the shipment. The U.S. Department of the Treasury, which implements most U.S. sanctions on target actors, designated 10 Iranian and Russian officials and businessmen and six companies for enabling Iran’s delivery of weapons components and weapons systems, including drones and missiles, to Russia. The most significant measure was the designation of Iran Air, the country’s flagship airline, as an entity “operating or having operated in the transportation sector of the Russian Federation economy.” The Department concurrently designated Iran Air pursuant to an executive order, imposing sanctions on Iranian sales of conventional arms. The State Department also sanctioned Iran Air and two Russia-based shipping companies.

Yet, the more significant effect in Iran will come from U.S. partners in Europe. Iran Air has been banned from operating in the United States for decades, but the airline has not heretofore been subjected to similar restrictions in European airspace. Last week, concurrent with the U.S. action, European partners announced measures which will not allow Iran Air to operate in their territory in the future, and stated they will pursue “further [sanctions] designations of Iran- and Russia-based individuals, entities, and vessels involved in the transfer of Iranian lethal aid to Russia.” Iran Air has represented a key link that enables Iranians to travel to the West, including to study at European universities, although some major European carriers still fly to and from Iran. A European ban on Iran Air is certain to further the sense among the Iranian population that their government is further isolating Iranians from the West and realigning Iranian cultural, educational, and commercial ties toward China and other non-Western societies. The Iran Air ban furthermore signals that the U.S. and its European allies dismiss any significant prospects for President Pezeshkian’s arguments for foreign policy restraint and for improving ties to the West to prevail in internal Iranian leadership debates.

The Iran Air ban and other measures were followed by a condemnatory statement by the G7 group of the world’s most advanced economies. On September 14, the G7 Foreign Ministers stated: “We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the EU (European Union), condemn in the strongest possible terms Iran’s export and Russia’s procurement of Iranian ballistic missiles.” Signaling that further sanctions might yet be imposed, the G7 statement added: “We remain steadfast in our commitment to hold Iran to account for its unacceptable support for Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine that further undermines global security. In line with our previous statements on the matter, we are already responding with new and significant measures.” It remains unclear whether the U.S. and European measures will cause Tehran to rethink its arms supply relationship with Moscow, or decide instead to forgo any hope of rapprochement with the West and further expand ties to Moscow, Beijing, nations in the Global South, and other actors seeking to overturn a global power structure they see as heavily dominated by the Western democracies.