October 2, 2024

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Iran Launches Missile Assault Against Israel, Leaving the Middle East on Edge

AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo

Iran launched a missile barrage at Israel yesterday in a much-anticipated response to Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah, on the heels of the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Beginning around 7:30 p.m. last evening, Iran began launching ballistic missiles at Israel, close to two hundred roughly, demonstrating that Israel’s recent gambit of ‘escalate to deescalate’ did not work as planned. It takes approximately 12 minutes for ballistic missiles fired from Iran to reach Israel. Some of the targets included the headquarters of Israel’s foreign intelligence service, Mossad, near Tel Aviv; and Israeli airbase at Nevatim; and an Israeli airbase at Khatzirim.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that the missile attack is in response to Israel’s killing of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran in late July, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli airstrike several days ago, and IRGC commander Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of operations, who was killed alongside Nasrallah in Friday’s attack.

Once again, the Middle East is on the precipice of all-out war, with multiple theatres seeing active conflict. Iran is attacking Israel while Israel attacks targets in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Hezbollah and the Houthis are firing missiles at Israel. The war in Gaza continues unabated, and a terrorist attack conducted in Jaffa killed at least seven people and left several others injured after two attackers armed with an assault rifle went on a shooting spree in Central Israel, according to Israeli police and emergency services. The police described the incident as a terrorist attack, although no group has claimed immediate responsibility as of late Tuesday. The attack, which occurred as the Iron Dome intercepted Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv, demonstrates how the conflict and violence have crept further toward city, which has often felt removed from such developments. The mass shooting also comes six weeks after another attack in Tel Aviv by Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which the groups claim was a suicide bombing, although Israel has not described it as such.

During the missile barrage, Israel’s security cabinet convened in a Jerusalem bunker to discuss how Israel planned to respond to Iran’s missile attack, which was more expansive than its missile attack in April. In both cases, Israel’s missile defense systems performed to the highest standards, intercepting Iranian missiles and preventing large scale casualties in Israel. With bomb shelters common in Israeli homes, and sufficient warning provided in the lead up to the attack, that combination, along with Israel’s Iron Dome system, kept Israeli civilians safe.

The United States has made it clear that the U.S. military is watching events in the region closely and is prepared to back Israel. U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where the USS Arleigh Burke, USS Cole, and USS Bulkeley are deployed, used interceptors to help shoot down numerous missiles launched by Iran toward Israel. The Jordanian Air Force was active in intercepting missiles over its territory during the recent Iranian attack. Iran warned Israel against retaliating to its missile barrage, though escalation could be imminent, as it remains unlikely that Israel will allow this attack to go unanswered. Many are wondering whether the Israelis could look to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and some have even speculated that the United States could help the Israelis with such an operation. Other targets could include Iranian energy and oil facilities, or IRGC missile capabilities.

Iran’s attack was not unexpected. Iran was caught in a ‘Catch-22,’ where eschewing a response would signal weakness, but launching an attack considered beyond the pale by Israel could invite a full-throated Israeli response against Iranian territory. But with its latest missile barrage, Iran hopes that it has reinforced its support for regional proxies following recent setbacks over the past several weeks.

Iran needed to reestablish its regional deterrence and demonstrate reliability to its proxies and allies. The lack of retaliation for Haniyeh's death, coupled with Iran’s lack of action towards the Israeli operation in Lebanon, including the killing of Nasrallah, has raised doubts among Iran's proxies and their supporters about its commitment. This recent effort appears to be an attempt to restore Iran's previous level of deterrence and to revive the support among its proxies.

In a region where red lines are used to govern the contours of attacks and counterattacks, it is no longer evident that the rules of engagement are clear, or agreed upon, by any of the parties to the ongoing conflict. This puts Israel and Iran on a potential collision course, with devastating consequences if the conflict continues to escalate. The conflict-induced mass displacement in Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel underscores this reality, along with the subsequent deteriorating humanitarian situation. Moreover, Israel’s expected response is unlikely to remain limited to one country and will likely occur throughout the region, targeting an array of Iran-backed proxy groups and other Iranian interests.