October 17, 2024

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Come Hell or High Water: The National Security Risks of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

The recent arrest of a man in North Carolina for threats made against Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) response workers in the wake of the recent Helene and Milton hurricanes in the southeast of the U.S. has resulted in the halting of some FEMA operations in the state and hindered aid to several affected communities. This event has underscored the consequences of the online proliferation of misinformation and disinformation that have occurred in the wake of these climate disasters and highlighted the realities of how online conspiracy theories can escalate into real-world violence. These events and the resulting false narrative have brought climate change as a security concern to the forefront.

A concerning element of this discourse is their co-option by political elites, pointing to the exploitation of climate disasters and online responses for electoral gains. This dynamic is particularly concerning given the proximity of the disasters to the upcoming U.S. presidential election. For example, former President Donald Trump has falsely claimed that FEMA had misappropriated disaster relief funds to prioritize undocumented immigrants, stating that "Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants.” He has also stated that affected populations were offered $750 in aid payouts, an incendiary claim which oversimplifies FEMA's assistance program. These claims have been echoed by other prominent Republican individuals, such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who asserted that Democrats can "control the weather."

The amplification of these narratives is concerning – not only do they seek to undermine the Biden administration's relief responses for possible electoral dividends, but they also serve to propagate a broad distrust in institutions. The spread of false claims, propped up by discourse from political elites, has had tangible impacts on the ability of first responders to deliver assistance to affected individuals. Furthermore, the saturation of the online space has prevented the effective dissemination of accurate information that could provide valuable assistance during disasters. Overall, this sowing of confusion has fused with an erosion of public trust in government institutions, such as FEMA, to result in depleted disaster responses. This also has the potential to erode the efficacy of future crisis response measures.

Another concerning trend that has been evidenced by the recent flurry of misinformation vis-a-vis the hurricanes is the overrepresentation of antisemitic rhetoric in the online sphere. In a recent study, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) found that 33 posts on X (Twitter) containing false claims generated over 160 million views on the site. Furthermore, they found that over 30 percent of posts on X contained overtly antisemitic hate speech, with a particular focus on the targeting of Jewish public officials involved in the response, as well as claims that a Jewish deep state is in control of FEMA and other government agencies. This discourse has amalgamated with other extremist ideologies, including anti-migrant and far-right narratives.

These false narratives have led to credible threats and incitement to violence against federal officials, including calls to send militias to confront FEMA. ISD highlights the existence of a crossover between networks engaged in climate denialism, election conspiracies, and other extremist movements, creating a mutually reinforcing dynamic of misinformation. This trend is also reflective of a broader trend in the online extremist ecosystem to capitalize upon extreme events to spread ideologies and is reminiscent of the surge in anti-government and racist narratives that proliferated during the COVID pandemic.

Moreover, white supremacist and militia groups have also capitalized on the disasters and misinformation around the responses as a recruitment tool. Groups such as the Patriot Front have arrived in impacted communities to offer aid, while also filming propaganda videos to amplify disinformation narratives around the government response and to reframe their organizations as civic-minded. These groups have posted videos on Telegram purporting to be among the few civilian workers aiding in disaster relief efforts – claims refuted by local officials who say that federal agencies have deployed staff to aid in the response. The exploitation of hurricane relief response by these groups comes within the broader context of their increased activities in the lead up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, escalating efforts to promulgate their narratives through disinformation – as the neo-Nazi Blood Tribe group did in spreading the false narratives about Haitian migrants – but also preparing their groups for election day in November.

Along with the threat of misinformation regarding the hurricanes, the physical threat of these storms –– and climate change overall –– is increasingly being seen as a national security threat by the U.S. government and military. According to a statement from Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, active-duty members, along with thousands of national guardsmen, were sent to the areas impacted by Hurricane Helene to “support and coordinate” relief efforts including federal search and rescue operations. Additionally, these efforts have been in coordination with FEMA, providing food, water, and other necessities to victims. Service members have had similar roles following Hurricane Milton that pummeled southern Florida earlier this month. Moreover, given the location of U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in Tampa, Florida, there is a tangible threat of disruption to planning and operations. The same can be said for training and readiness at U.S. military bases around the country that are threatened by the acceleration of climate change.

The Military Responses to Climate Hazards (MiRCH) Tracker created by the Council on Strategic Risks found that over the past year, the military has been deployed 86 times to respond to climate disasters such as hurricanes, extreme flooding, and wildfires, with 81 of those being responses within the U.S. At the time of this publication, the tracker had not yet accounted for the responses to Helene and Milton. According to U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, response by the National Guard to wildfires has increased by 12 times in the past five years. With experts projecting 2024 to be the hottest year on record, the military, along with first responders, will have to prepare to respond to an increased frequency of, and potentially more severe, climate-related events.