October 1, 2024

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Israel Launches “Limited Ground Operation” Into Lebanon

AP Photo/Baz Ratner

Israel launched what it described as a "limited ground operation" against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon early morning on Tuesday. A statement from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced a "targeted and demarcated ground operation" aimed at "terrorist targets and infrastructure of the terrorist organization Hezbollah." The IDF specified that the operation was focused on villages near the border, which were considered to pose an immediate threat to northern Israeli communities. Israel has made returning its citizens to the north of the country part of its broader war objectives.

This statement follows a similar assessment from the United States, where White House officials indicated that Israeli forces appeared to have launched "limited ground operations" against Hezbollah targets. However, given historical precedents, it is difficult to determine the true limitations of this operation. In its military operations both in 1978 and 1982, Israel’s initial limited incursions escalated significantly, with the 1982 invasion eventually reaching the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and resulting in an 18-year occupation that had wide-ranging impacts on Lebanon, Israel, and the broader region. Once a military operation begins, controlling all variables contributing to the fog of war becomes challenging, especially when expansion seems feasible. This current action marks the fourth invasion of Lebanon by Israel, following similar operations in 1978, 1982, and the 2006 war, which lasted for 34 days but still had massive implications for the Middle East. Hezbollah, as an organized force, largely emerged as a result of Israel’s 1982 invasion and subsequent occupation.

Reports indicate that the United States has warned Israel that such an attack might garner increased sympathy and support for Hezbollah, which presents itself as a resistance movement within Lebanon. Israel's recent operations have achieved significant success in targeting Hezbollah's command, control, and communications infrastructure, severely disrupting its organizational and operational capabilities, and eliminating the group’s top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, for the past 32 years. However, the exact impact of these successes on Hezbollah's ability to inflict serious damage on Israel remains unclear.

While Israel has demonstrated significant technological and military superiority, contributing to its operational successes thus far, this advantage may be challenged in the event of a ground invasion and prolonged occupation. Israel’s historical engagements in Lebanon, as well as U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, illustrate that initial military and technological dominance can be significantly tested by asymmetric warfare and the complexities of a prolonged ground presence. Such scenarios might erode Israel’s initial leverage, playing directly into Hezbollah’s calculations in making occupation and counterinsurgency efforts much more complex and costly for Israel. Some analysts have suggested that an Israeli ground incursion plays directly into Hezbollah’s hands, as the group would be playing a “home game” and would likely seek to attack IDF soldiers with anti-tank guided missiles, improvised explosive devices, and other guerrilla tactics that have proved effective in the past.

Despite Israeli strikes, Hezbollah retains notable strength, including missile stockpiles that could be used against Israeli targets. In his first public statement following Nasrallah's assassination, Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem stated that Hezbollah's command and control structures remain functional, citing a contingency plan put in place by Nasrallah himself. So far, Hezbollah appears to retain still the capability to launch missiles into Israel.

Simultaneously, as Israel announced the limited ground operation targeting Hezbollah infrastructure along its northern borders, Israeli strikes targeted the Syrian capital of Damascus. The strikes occurred a day after Israel conducted airstrikes on Yemen, targeting the port of Hodeidah in retaliation for Houthi missile attacks on Israel.

The recent regional escalations risk expanding the already tense conflict and pushing the Middle East toward greater uncertainty. The response from Iran to Israel's targeting of its so-called “Axis of Resistance” remains to be seen. However, indications suggest that Tehran is reluctant to become directly involved beyond issuing warnings of potential future retaliations. However, Iran may permit Hezbollah and other proxies to act beyond previously established “red lines,” allowing the militants to target Israel with advanced missile stockpiles, as long as Iran itself remains uninvolved. The Biden administration has deployed what it described as a few thousand troops to the region, aiming to deter Iran from direct intervention and reduce the risk of further escalation.

In light of the ongoing developments, the situation in the region remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation looming large. Missteps could lead to a broader regional confrontation involving not only Israel, Hezbollah, and other militant groups but also potentially drawing in state actors like Iran and major powers such as the United States. The potential costs of such an expanded conflict would be profound, impacting not only the nations directly involved but also threatening global stability and risking further humanitarian disaster.