November 18, 2024

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Fight and Talk as Conflict Continues to Rage Across the Middle East

AP Photo

Negotiations to end the fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah appear to be reaching an endgame. The conflict, which has raged since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, has caused the displacement of tens of thousands of inhabitants on both sides of the Israel – Lebanon border, as well as more than a million Lebanese displaced from Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. As talks intensify on a U.S. draft ceasefire proposal, major stakeholders are seeking to maximize their leverage as they anticipate the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. The President-elect has said he wants the Israel-Hezbollah and the Gaza conflicts ended before taking office in January and has consistently argued for settling rather than starting new wars. He has also expressed support for a broad agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran to settle all outstanding issues. However, Trump has nominated foreign policy officials almost uniformly anti-Iran and pro-Israel – most of whom advocate placing additional U.S. pressure on Iran to take advantage of the setbacks to its “unity of fronts” strategy intended to pressure and intimidate Israel.

Trump’s re-election, coupled with the setbacks Israeli operations have caused, have prompted Tehran and its Axis partners to develop strategies to rebuild their capabilities and influence. Apparently seeking to reassure its regional allies that Iran remains committed to its Axis partners and its unity of fronts strategy, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i last week dispatched a close aide, former Iranian Majles (parliament) speaker Ali Larijani, to deliver messages to Syrian and Lebanese leaders, on his behalf.

Larijani arrived in Beirut Thursday as Lebanon’s senior leaders began considering a U.S.-drafted Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire plan that the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, had presented to Lebanon's parliament speaker Nabih Berri the previous day. The U.S. draft seeks to ensure the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The draft, by all accounts, accommodates Israeli demands, expressed by the new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, that any agreement forces Hezbollah to verifiably and permanently withdraw from areas near the Israeli border. However, the proposal draft purportedly includes a bilateral U.S. pledge to support future Israeli military operations to address any alleged Hezbollah violations of the agreement - provisions that have drawn objections from Hezbollah, its allies in Lebanon, and Iran. Hezbollah and Lebanese leaders, including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, assert that any Israeli operations in Lebanon, including overflights, would constitute a violation of Resolution 1701.

Despite objections to the U.S. draft, Berri, who Hezbollah has delegated to negotiate on its behalf, told the Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that discussions around the plan’s details were “progressing” and most of the text is “acceptable” to Lebanese leaders. Still, in an apparent effort to put additional pressure on Hezbollah and its allies to accept the draft, Israel conducted five straight days of strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut. Israel also expanded its ground operation in southern Lebanon, sending troops into villages farther from its border. Israeli leaders characterized their advance as a tactical step to neutralize the threat of Hezbollah antitank missile attacks on Israeli border towns as part of the effort to convince 60,000 Israeli civilians that they can safely return to areas they fled. The intensified Israeli strikes on Beirut also brought a rebuke from Washington. State Department spokesman, Vedant Patel, said at a briefing for the news media: “We do not want to see these kinds of operations in Beirut, especially as it relates to densely populated areas.”

Despite two months of Israeli escalation against Hezbollah, the group is still launching more than a hundred rocket attacks per day toward Israel, and its drones can continue to penetrate air defenses to strike sensitive sites. Last week, Brett Holmgren, the acting director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) told a Washington think-tank audience that, while Israeli strikes have decimated Hezbollah leadership, the group's ground forces in southern Lebanon "remain somewhat intact." He added Israel's actions have done little to damage Hezbollah's reach beyond the Middle East, saying "[Hezbollah’s] external capabilities have largely been untouched." Most experts assess that while Hezbollah has been attenuated, the group will regenerate its forces, remaining firmly entrenched in southern Lebanon.

Larijani’s arrival in Beirut on Thursday appeared intended to signal Iran’s continued commitment to Hezbollah, while at the same time recognizing Iran’s influence in Lebanon - and the region - has diminished. Lebanese leaders stated clearly they wanted to bring to an end Israel’s destruction of Beirut and of Lebanese villages in the south, even if a ceasefire requires a Hezbollah climbdown. Mikati, a Sunni Muslim (the community that holds the premiership by agreement under the 1989 Ta’if Accords that ended Lebanon’s civil war), told Larijani: “It is crucial to avoid actions that could create sensitivities among Lebanese factions or favor one group over another,” referring to Iran’s support for Hezbollah. In recent weeks, reflecting the setbacks delivered to Iran and its Axis partners, Mikati and other Lebanese political leaders have become more critical of Iran’s role in Lebanon. Mikati urged Larijani that Tehran should encourage Tehran to convince Hezbollah, which it supports, to agree to the U.S. draft ceasefire proposal.

Seeking to appear cooperative with a Lebanese consensus, as well as to end Israel’s military pressure on its key ally, Hezbollah, Larijani told a news conference in Beirut that Iran would back any decision made by the Lebanese government. He stated: “We are not here to undermine any (ceasefire) initiative.” When asked about United Nations Security Council 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Larijani said, "Anything that the Lebanese authorities and the Lebanese resistance could accept, we are for.” Still, Larijani met with Berri on Friday to pass, through him, a message from Supreme Leader Khamene’i to Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem. Larijani did not disclose specific details but said the content of the message centered on “supporting the people and Resistance movements in [Lebanon and Syria].” The wording suggests that Iranian leaders have become concerned that their Axis partners may be questioning whether Iran possesses the intent and capability to continue assisting them in the face of the likely additional pressure that will be placed on Tehran by the second Trump Administration.

Larijani visited Beirut after a stop in Damascus, where he delivered a message from the Supreme Leader to President Bashar Al-Assad. The visit to Syria might have been attended to prevent any Syrian rethinking of its willingness to serve as the key transit point and facilitator for Iranian military support to Hezbollah. Although Assad has maintained close ties with Iran - and owes Tehran gratitude for helping him defeat the nationwide armed rebellion that erupted in 2011 - he has occasionally distanced himself from Tehran’s broader regional conflicts. Notably, he has managed to mend relations with Saudi Arabia and rejoined the Arab League in 2023 after years of diplomatic isolation. Assad has also withstood pressure from Axis of Resistance members to join the post-October 7 war effort against Israel, apparently out of fear that Israeli retaliation would weaken his military position within Syria.

If Iran sought to reassure Assad that Tehran remains committed to its unity of fronts approach, Israeli leaders sought to remind both Assad and Tehran that they are vulnerable. Larijani was meeting with the head of Syria's Supreme National Security Council on Thursday when a nearby downtown Damascus building was hit with three Israeli air strikes, according to several reports. Larijani was not at any of the facilities struck and was not hurt. The Israeli military confirmed the airstrikes, saying they targeted sites linked to Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a militant group also backed by Tehran and allied with Hamas in Gaza. The attack occurred shortly before Larijani was due to meet with representatives of Palestinian factions, including PIJ, at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, although there is no evidence Israel was specifically targeting Larijani. The strikes killed at least 15 people and wounded 16 others, according to reports citing Syria’s state news agency SANA. Earlier in the week, seeming to reinforce that Israel will continue to target Syrian installations linked to Iran, Hezbollah, and the Axis of Resistance, Herzi Halevi, the Israeli military chief of staff, said: “We are conducting deep strikes and striking frequently in Syria and along the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah.”