November 14, 2024

SHARE |

COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, Kicks Off Amid Global Signs of Climate Change, and Increased Climate Skepticism

AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

The 29^th United Nations climate conference (COP29) kicked off on Monday, November 11, in Baku, Azerbaijan, amid global red blinking lights signaling the escalating and destructive impacts of climate change. The summer of 2024 was recorded as the hottest summer on record, with carbon emissions from fossil fuels hitting record highs, according to the Global Carbon Project, a coalition of scientists tracking carbon emissions. Two weeks ago, heavy rain and flash floods hit Valencia, Spain, killing over 200 people while destroying homes and property. The floods prompted mass protests of approximately 130,000 people who were upset at government officials for issuing flood warnings too late. In May, a devastating windstorm in Houston, Texas killed 5 people and left 600,000 without power.

Meanwhile, the demand for power shows no signs of abating: demand for energy is rapidly rising as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) development and deployment show growing resource demands – data center power is projected to grow 160 percent by 2030. Opinion polls also show a decreasing understanding of climate change in the United States, the second largest CO2 emitter. In 2024, 75 percent of Americans believe the earth has been warming over the last 100 years, down from 83 percent in 2020, according to the Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford and the Resources for the Future, who have been tracking American public opinion on climate change for years.  The Energy Policy Institute meanwhile found that in 2024 more than half of Americans are unwilling to pay any amount of money (in the form of a monthly fee on their energy use) to combat climate change. At the same time, energy value chains are coming under increasing strain due to climate change.

In this context, 80 countries are coming together in Baku to discuss some of the most pressing issues regarding climate change and environmental security. COP29 comes three months ahead of the deadline for Paris Agreement signatory nations to provide information on their latest plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. is currently a signatory to the Paris Agreement, though by the time the deadline approaches, many are bracing for President-elect Donald Trump to withdraw from the agreement for a second time.

The talks at COP29 will be climate finance-centric, with special attention given to the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a funding target indicating the funds that should be mobilized annually to support climate action projects in developing countries. While the current target stands at $100 billion per year, Paris signatories agreed they would set a new target in Baku. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Standing Committee on Finance estimates it will take $5.8-5.9 trillion by 2030 to support the signatories’ commitments.

Despite commitments made by developed countries, leaders from developing countries have increasingly shared their frustration with those that have failed to live up to these commitments. Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda claimed that “these promises have largely gone unfulfilled.” These leaders hope to use COP29 as an opportunity to secure more funding for their countries. Least developed countries have contributed the least to carbon emissions, and thus overall climate change, yet are the most vulnerable to its impacts and have a limited capacity to adapt. However, some of the biggest emitting countries, such as the U.S., China, and European nations, have not felt the political will to even send their top leaders to COP29, with U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto not representing at the conference.

Though Xi Jinping is not present at the conference, China is still expected to take a dominating role at the conference following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. Since Biden’s envoy at the conference will have no influence on policy once Trump’s term begins, China has the opportunity to step up as one of the biggest negotiators at the table. Although China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, it has used green technology as a significant sector which has helped to fuel its economy. China has made more than 80 percent of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity, and a Chinese company, BYD, has become the world’s biggest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. The country also dominates wind technologies and aspects of green technology supply chains, including the mining and processing of rare-earths and strategic minerals. China’s dominance in the green economy and Trump’s loyalty to fossil fuels pulls the U.S. out of a competitive market and will further embolden China in an era of great power competition.

COP29 in Azerbaijan was controversial due to its location: Azerbaijan is an oil- and gas-rich country, and its economy relies on fuel exports. According to Harvard’s Atlas of Economic Complexity, the exports of Azerbaijan are primarily petroleum and petroleum-derived products. Natural gas is important as a bridge fuel during the energy transition to a low carbon economy, necessary to mitigate the impacts of climate change. With President-elect Trump set to enter his second term in January 2025, his mantra of “drill baby drill” is expected to be a boon for oil and natural gas in the United States. At COP29, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban suggested that, while it is important to make a transition to green energy, in the meantime, it is also essential to “maintain our use of natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy.” Another right-wing populist, Argentina’s leader Javier Milei, ordered his country’s representatives to withdraw from the Summit after just three days. Milei has repeatedly questioned climate science, at one point labeling climate change “a socialist lie.” In contrast, Keir Starmer, the prime minister of the United Kingdom warned about the costs of inaction and juxtaposed his country’s stance with those of climate skeptics, saying that the UK was positioned to secure a first mover advantage on green investments and emission reductions.

On top of its heavy reliance on oil and gas, Azerbaijan also has a challenging record on human rights. Baku landed its COP29 host spot in 2023, only three months after it seized the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s take-over of the region was riddled with accusations from human rights organizations and others of ethnic cleansing after it was clear that it had displaced over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the territory, as well as the alleged systematic destruction of the territory’s cultural heritage and civic sites. Azerbaijan has also intensified its crackdown on civil society and journalists, including through politically motivated prosecutions and arrests and arbitrary enforcement of laws regulating NGOs, according to Human Rights Watch. Both of these high-profile issues prompted prominent climate activist Greta Thunberg to announce her boycott of the conference.