June 6, 2024

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IntelBrief: Protests in Georgia and Armenia Cause Political Unrest and Signal Russian Hybrid-Warfare

AP Photo/Zurab Tsertsvadze

After an overturned presidential veto and weeks of protests, the controversial Georgian "foreign agents" bill was finally passed on Monday. Georgia’s parliament first introduced this bill in April, drawing from a similar legislation in 2023 that was abandoned following widespread protests. This bill, reminiscent of Russian laws which cracked down on independent media organizations and civil society, forces NGOs, think tanks, media organizations, and campaign groups that receive foreign funding to declare themselves “foreign agents”. The bill and other seemingly pro-Russian political moves from the ruling Georgian Dream Party have drawn criticism both domestically and internationally. Protesters on the streets and officials in Brussels have expressed concerns, suggesting the legislation is designed to damage relations with the European Union. This bill, seen as an attempt to stigmatize Georgian civil society and silence critics of the ruling party, has been deemed incompatible with EU values and standards. Additionally, the U.S. has imposed travel sanctions on Georgian officials responsible for this legislation, accusing them of undermining democracy.

Georgia is not the only Caucasian country recently rocked by protests. Armenia has also been experiencing domestic unrest sparked by the ceding of four deserted border villages to Azerbaijan as a part of broader border demarcation talks. These villages, mostly enclaves within Armenia, were controlled by Azerbaijan during Soviet times and later occupied by the Armenian army in the early 1990s. They are located near Armenia’s main highway to the Georgian border — a crucial trade route — and close to the pipeline carrying Russian gas. These villages are vital for Armenia’s economic and energy security. Additionally, residents of nearby areas have raised safety concerns, recalling past cross-border violence from the 1990s; many of them fear they will be cut off from the rest of the country.

Protests in both Georgia and Armenia have escalated over the past few weeks. In Georgia, they turned violent, as peaceful demonstrators were met with tear gas, water cannons, and physical abuse. Many experts believe the country is in crisis, as the ruling party continues to solidify political power at the behest of the majority of Georgian citizenry. In Armenia, opposition protests have reached their largest scale since the 2018 "Velvet Revolution," which brought Nikol Pashinyan to power as prime minister. Protesters are demanding his resignation, accusing him of "betraying" the country through concessions to Azerbaijan. Amid these protests, an unlikely political figure has emerged: Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, a clergyman from the region being ceded to Azerbaijan. As disillusionment with the political system grows in Armenia, the populist Archbishop, with his unique apolitical background, faces significant challenges in gaining power as Pashinyan did in 2018. While Pashinyan's popularity has reached new lows, his formal political opposition, which represents the old-guard political elite, is even less popular. Many view them as equally responsible for the losses in Nagorno-Karabakh and the weakening power dynamic with Azerbaijan.

In Georgia, the political situation also remains unclear ahead of October parliamentary elections in the country. As with many other Caucasian countries, Georgia has a volatile political history in the post-Soviet era. Similarly to Armenia’s Velvet Revolution, Georgia has also experienced its own “color revolution” – the Rose Revolution in 2003. This term was coined by Russia to describe democratic revolutions happening in the post-Soviet space. Russian military officials have historically viewed these movements as a security threat, arguing that they are part of a Western approach to warfare aimed at destabilizing governments in states in its sphere of influence as a low-cost strategy to advance Western security interests.

Russia has often used so-called “color revolutions” as a pretext for military intervention. In fact, many of the political challenges currently faced by Georgia and Armenia suggest a broader hybrid warfare campaign by Russia, aimed at destabilizing these countries as they seek closer ties with Europe and the West. Armenia, once a close ally of Russia, has been targeted by disinformation campaigns after pro-Western Pashinyan gained power. He is frequently labeled a “Western Puppet” in Russian media. On the other hand, Russia controls 20 percent of Georgian territory as a result of the 2008 Five Day War. Through propaganda and media campaigns, Russia has effectively capitalized on nationalist and anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments in Georgia, fueling societal divisions. Kremlin narratives, painting the West as incompatible with Orthodox Christian society, have gained traction among conservative segments of Georgian society. This has led to the introduction of not only the foreign agents bill, but also legislation that bars the free association of LGBTQ+ individuals, like Pride parades, which will likely make EU accession more difficult.

In both Armenia and Georgia, Russian media is quite popular and actively works to propel pro-Kremlin, anti-West narratives. Both countries remain economically dependent on Russian gas. Even though Armenia has tried to distance itself from the regional hegemon, Russian gas exports covered 87.7 percent of Armenia’s gas needs in 2022. This dependence, coupled with limited self-sufficiency, makes Armenia vulnerable to Russian influence, with gas prices serving as a leverage tool. In Georgia, Russian products played an increasingly significant role in Georgia's oil and gas sector, providing fertile ground for economic-related narratives to emerge. Georgia's revenue from Russia in 2023, including remittances, tourism, and goods exports, hit $2 billion, marking a 60 percent increase from the previous year. As both countries continue to navigate their domestic issues and relationship with the West, it will be vital to monitor the unfolding situation in tandem with Russia’s destabilizing role in the region.