INTELBRIEF

July 26, 2024

Bloodshed in Bangladesh as Protesters Clash with Police and Security Forces

AP Photo/Anik Rahman

Bottom Line Up Front

  • This month, Bangladesh has witnessed its worst political violence in over a decade, with protests marked by unprecedented levels of bloodshed.
  • The protests began in Bangladesh’s capital city of Dhaka against the government’s job quota system, with university students claiming the system disproportionately benefits relatives of veterans from the country’s 1971 war of independence from Pakistan.
  • Students opposing the quota system have encountered violence from supporters of the Awami League (AL), Bangladesh’s ruling political party, along with clashes with the police, leaving over 200 dead and 2,500 arrested.
  • The protests have emerged in the context of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s consolidation of an unprecedented fourth term in office despite widespread anti-incumbency sentiment and a controversial election in January 2024.

Protests erupted in Bangladesh’s capital city of Dhaka earlier this month against the government’s job quota system. University students originally began the protests against the job quota system, claiming it disproportionally benefited the children of the "freedom fighters” of the Bangladesh war of independence from Pakistan in 1971. Under this quota, 30 percent of government jobs are reserved for the veterans of the liberation war, but that percentage has since expanded to include their children and other relatives. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with 18.7 percent living below the poverty line as of 2022, according to the CIA World Factbook. Government jobs provide stability, higher salaries, and benefits like pensions and welfare while also bringing prestige and a higher social status. Multiple surveys have concluded that university students prefer government/public sector jobs, specifically in the Bangladesh Civil Service, the government sector in which the protested quotas are in place.

Anti-quota protests first began in 2018, when student demonstrators successfully pressured the government to abolish the system. However, in June 2024, the high court ruled that the abolition of the quota was unconstitutional, and it was reinstated, sparking widespread protests. Just last week, the protests turned violent. Students opposing the quota system have faced violence from supporters of the Awami League (AL), the ruling political party in Bangladesh, and members of the Bangladesh Chattra League (BCL), the student wing of the AL. These groups have branded the protesting students as pro-Pakistan "traitors." This sentiment of the Awami League was echoed in a recent speech delivered by Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who referred to protesters as “razakars” - a derogatory term historically used to describe those who collaborated with the Pakistani army during the fight for independence. This inflammatory rhetoric by the ruling party and its supporters has exacerbated tensions and contributed to the spread of violence across the country.

This violence, along with clashes with the police, reportedly killed over 200 people, mostly demonstrators, along with approximately 2,500 people arrested. Allegations of torture have emerged from detained students, raising serious concerns. Additionally, reports have circulated widely about orders from the Bangladeshi military to "shoot on sight." In response to the escalating situation, Hasina imposed a nationwide curfew and internet shutdowns to suppress the popular revolt by all available means, an increasingly common tactic of authoritarian regimes.

The protests have emerged in the context of Prime Minister Hasina's consolidation of an unprecedented fourth term in office despite widespread anti-incumbency sentiment and a controversial election in January 2024. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition, boycotted the vote after Hasina refused its demand for her to step aside so that the election could be more balanced. Hasina has ruled with an iron fist in her past administrations, rewarding her followers with power and impunity, while squashing dissenters with crackdowns and imprisonment. Hasina has so exceptionally succeeded in quelling her opposition the New York Times reported that “Ms. Hasina’s Awami League, in power since 2009, has cleared the way for a race so one-sided that the party urged its own contestants to prop up dummy candidates, so it does not look as if they won unchallenged.”

The most recent elections in Bangladesh were marked by significant political violence, as the ruling party sought to maintain its grip on power. Some of this violence has been attributed to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has been vocal in demanding free and fair elections and advocating for a caretaker government to oversee the electoral process. After more than fifteen years of rule by the Awami League (AL), the party has faced accusations of undermining democracy in the country. The current unrest reflects a broader dissatisfaction with what is perceived as an increasingly authoritarian, corrupt, and repressive system under Prime Minister Hasina and the AL. The 2024 elections saw the arrest of thousands of opposition members, leading many to view the election outcome as a consolidation of a one-party dominant system by the ruling party.

These protests are unfolding amid significant economic challenges in Bangladesh. According to 2023 data, 23 percent of individuals aged 15-24 are both unemployed and not enrolled in formal education, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Thus, exacerbating the economic anxiety that makes government jobs highly sought after. This dire economic situation, coupled with recent allegations of corruption involving senior leaders within the AL, has intensified public discontent. The AL government has been accused of facilitating money laundering and favoring businesses linked to the party. The country's high inflation, attributed to large-scale economic mismanagement by the ruling party, has further heightened concerns among the youth about the fairness of the quota system. This environment of economic scarcity has played a decisive role in both the intensity and persistence of the current demonstrations.

The current protests are widely seen as a rejection of the ruling party’s efforts to maintain an authoritarian grip on power. Critics have argued that the enforcement of the “freedom fighter” quotas by the ruling party is a strategy to entrench power and build a loyal base of support within the military and civil service. The continuation of the quota system is perceived by many as disproportionately benefiting loyalists of the AL, further entrenching the party’s hold on power.

The BNP has struggled to find effective means to counter AL’s hegemony, which has been embedded through the party’s utilization of forced disappearances and unlawful arrests to quell the opposition. As such, the BNP has been instrumental in amplifying the protests – historically, student protests have played a crucial role in challenging the status quo in Bangladesh. The BNP aims to use the anti-quota demonstrations to challenge Hasina’s 15-year tenure and potentially end the Awami League's dominance. In response, Hasina has ordered the closure of educational institutions across the country, aiming to suppress the student-led protests.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's entrenched position in Bangladesh has been reinforced by the strategic support from regional powers like India, China, and Russia. These nations view Bangladesh as a strategically significant key player in South Asia, and their backing has discouraged external intervention, bolstering Hasina's authority. However, the recent protests over the job quota system reveal deeper discontent with the government's increasingly authoritarian tendencies. The government's response to the unrest, including the use of military force and curfews, highlights the precarious balance of maintaining internal control while managing external perceptions and alliances. As the situation evolves, the reactions of both the Bangladeshi populace and the government will significantly influence regional stability and the broader geopolitical landscape in South Asia.

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