July 22, 2024

SHARE |

Houthis Launch New Wave of Attacks

AP Photo

The threat to regional peace and security posed by the Houthi movement (Ansarallah) in Yemen expanded Friday when the group launched an explosive-laden drone on Tel Aviv in the pre-dawn hours, striking an apartment building and killing an Israeli man while wounding several others. The drone reportedly flew near the U.S. diplomatic mission in the city (formerly the U.S. Embassy), which Israeli officials say might have been the target of the attack. The strike appeared to represent an attempt by the group to put teeth in its ideologically driven threats to directly strike Israel in response to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Previously, the Houthis have targeted Israel with drones and missiles but mostly landed wide of any significant targets or fell well short of Israeli territory. Israel reportedly responded on Saturday with a retaliatory attack on oil refinery facilities at the coastal city of Hodeidah. Houthi-run media first blamed U.S. forces but later assessed the attack was by Israel, and quoted Yemen’s Health Ministry as reporting the strike had killed and wounded several persons.

The Houthi attack on Tel Aviv demonstrated that U.S. military action, sanctions, diplomacy, and other policy tools – all pursued in concert with powerful and close allies – have failed to deter the group from destabilizing the region. But, global officials and most experts had, until the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv, broadly assumed that the Houthis would continue to focus their response to the Gaza war on attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The group has attacked more than 70 ships since beginning their campaign in November and has sunk two such vessels and disabled or damaged numerous others. The Houthi attacks have reduced commercial ship traffic by nearly half, but otherwise produced no measurable effect on Israeli, U.S., or global policy on the Gaza war or the broader region.

The Tel Aviv drone strike came days after the Houthis demonstrated they still have an ample and varied supply of weaponry in their arsenal. Two attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted ships in the Red Sea on July 15, even as the U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt rotated into the Eastern Mediterranean to provide security for the Red Sea shipping lane. Three small Houthi vessels, two of which were crewed and another uncrewed, attacked the Panama-flagged and Israeli-owned MT Bently I off the coast of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. That same day, off the same coast, the MT Chios Lion, a Liberian-flagged and Marshall Islands-owned oil tanker, was attacked by a Houthi drone boat, which “impacted on the port side causing some damage and light smoke,” the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organization said. The attacks came after the latest in a series of lulls in Houthi attacks on shipping – halts that, in the past, led to speculation that the Houthi weapons arsenals might be running low.

The Houthi strike on Tel Aviv has moved the group from the margins of the Gaza conflict to the center of diplomacy and the allied strategy to try to end the fighting permanently. The Houthis’ military spokesperson claimed responsibility for the attack and said the group would continue to target Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war. The spokesman said that Tel Aviv will continue to be a primary target for the terror group “within the range of our weapons.”

The attack rattled the Israeli security establishment, which has prided itself on fielding the most sophisticated missile, rocket, and drone defense in the region, if not the world. Israel, assisted by U.S. and moderate Arab state forces, was able to thwart an Iranian barrage of 300 missiles and drones on April 13. Yet, the Houthi drone penetrated Israeli air space by flying over 1,000 miles until it was over the Mediterranean Sea, which allowed it to evade detection by U.S. assets in the region or Israeli radar – a technological achievement that may change Israel’s security posture moving forward. According to an initial Israeli Air Force investigation, the unmanned aerial vehicle was identified, but due to a human error, it was not engaged by air defenses and no action to intercept it was taken – nor were any warning sirens sounded.

The IDF identified the drone as an Iranian-made Samad-3 that had been modified to have an extended range. According to the probe, it had flown to the country for several hours at a low altitude. After reaching Israel from Yemen, the drone made its way to Tel Aviv from the direction of the sea, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a press conference. The Houthis were previously believed to possess drones of a more limited range, able to reach only as far as the southern port of Eilat. The Houthis' use of Iranian technology to extend the range of its weaponry also suggests the group continues to receive technological help and supplies from Iran despite a concerted effort by U.S. forces and their allies to stop the flow of Iranian weaponry to the Houthis.

The U.S. weapons blockade effort might explain the fate of an Iranian vessel carrying weapons and experts destined for Houthi rebels in Yemen that vanished in the Red Sea in mid-July, according to Arab media reports. The ship, which was transporting missile assembly equipment, went missing after entering the Red Sea from the Horn of Africa and failing to dock in Yemen as planned. The disappearance reportedly sparked worry among Houthi leadership in Sanaa, fearing the vessel may have fallen into U.S. hands. However, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for the Middle East, which usually announces the seizure of weapons shipments bound for the Houthis, has not reported seizing, attacking, or sinking any Iranian vessels in the Red Sea.

Whether the U.S. or its maritime security partners were responsible for the disappearance of the weapons-carrying Iranian vessel, the Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv raises new questions over how to respond to the expanding Houthi threat. One immediate question was whether Israel or the United would lead the response to the drone attack. In line with their historic policy of responding to attacks on Israeli soil, Israeli officials told Israeli media that “there will be a response to the shooting of the Iranian drone by the Houthis.” The officials stated they would not rule out the possibility of a retaliatory action on Yemeni soil, saying such action was “on the table.” And, on Saturday, Houthi media reported Israel had struck oil refining facilities at the port city of Hodeidah, killing and wounding several persons. It was not immediately clear whether the strike would represent the extent of Israel’s retaliation.

At the same time, the Israeli retaliatory action might complicate U.S. strategy to calm the Red Sea crisis. U.S. officials have sought to conduct relatively limited and periodic attacks to degrade the Houthis’ arsenal and deter the group from continuing their campaign against Red Sea shipping. U.S. leaders have also continued, in concert with Saudi Arabian leaders and other allies, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to pursue an end to the internal conflict in Yemen – hoping that a Yemen settlement will persuade the Houthis to end their involvement in the Gaza war.

The Israeli strike could lead to Houthi escalation - against Israel, against shipping, or, potentially, by returning to its previous campaign of missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Any Houthi escalation has the potential to cause U.S. leaders to consider supporting ground combat against the Houthis by the forces of the Republic of Yemen Government. Other U.S. options include targeted strikes on Houthi leaders, special forces operations, or other actions. Any U.S. escalation against the Houthis has the potential to further expand the Gaza crisis into a regional conflagration.