July 10, 2024

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IntelBrief: Far-Right Falls Short in French Elections as the Left Unexpectedly Surges

AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard

The second round of the French elections have resulted in a significant win for the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which now holds the most seats in the National Assembly. While projections expected the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) to become the largest party, it ended in the third position with 143 seats, trailing behind both the NFP which won 182 seats and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance which now holds 163 seats.

Leftist leaders have called the results a major victory, but the parliament is now hung with no party having met the absolute majority threshold, the Assemblée Nationale split into three distinct blocs, and the NFP alliance rife with ideological fault lines. Essentially, these elections — touted as having united a Republican front to defeat RN — collapsed the French center and have given rise to the far-left and far-right, with no one able to govern.

The current situation in France is thus not only characterized by a potentially ungovernable parliamentary composition but also the daunting task of bringing distinct ideological groupings together to compromise to ensure a majority. The election result comes weeks before the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics, expected to attract roughly 15 million people in a tense security landscape, characterized by an increased terror threat. There are growing concerns that domestic political drama will distract from protecting the games from a range of security threats. Macron has asked current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal to stay in his post for now to ensure continuity in the near term.

While the 2024 legislative elections now have made NFP the largest party, the alliance is an ideologically diverse mosaic which will complicate effective governance and could contribute to serious legislative gridlock. Even with the potential for a political stalemate, many are heralding the rollback of the far-right and taking solace in the quashed hopes of Marine Le Pen, the leader of the RN. The Socialists, Greens, Communists, and the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) have agenda points in common, but some fissures are already becoming apparent. For example, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the controversial leader of LFI, and other hard-left leaders push for aggressive economic reforms and have refrained from calling Hamas a terrorist organization, more moderate factions within the coalition, such as the Socialists and Greens, seek what could be considered pragmatic solutions. These differences could impede the coalition's ability to present a unified front and effectively govern and is already complicating NFP’s decision on who to present as a potential prime minister to President Macron.

Previous left-wing alliances in France, such as the Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale (NUPES), have struggled with internal tensions and ultimately fell apart. One of the major tensions within NUPES was Mélenchon, who before the invasion of Ukraine was known for his Russophile remarks and who has been a consistent skeptic of the EU, NATO, and the United States. Additionally, LFI has not unanimously condemned Hamas as a terrorist organization. The current NFP faces similar risks as NUPES, particularly given the strong personalities and differing policy priorities within the coalition. While LFI has the most seats within the NPF, it has already stated it would not be working together with the center — something Raphaël Glucksmann from the Socialists has signaled could happen.

Beyond the domestic implications and the perceived repudiation of the far-right, the French elections demonstrate the widespread appeal of populist politics in Europe. Although several left–wing parties – who are certain to have myriad challenges in governance – united to defeat the projected landslide by the RN, the far–right still made considerable gains in the snap election. Although the RN fell to the third position in the final round of votes, it captured 37.1 percent of the overall vote – the highest of the all the parties in the election. Further, RN gained 53 seats from the previous election in 2022, a 59.6 percent increase in parliamentary seats. Such electoral gains, particularly compared with the fact RN won just eight parliamentary seats in the 2017 election, underscores the party’s appeal and how it will continue to be a formidable force in French politics moving forward. Such trends have been consistent in other European countries, including in Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party managed to win the second-most seats in the recent EU elections, despite a dip in support earlier in the year due to political controversy.

Despite their seemingly disparate politics, the far-left and far-right in Europe, including in France, are increasingly united on certain issues, particularly around economic grievances and the cost-of-living crisis, as well as the war in Ukraine. A wave of protests throughout the continent in late 2022 and throughout 2023 have seen thousands of demonstrators from both the far-right and far-left coalesce around economic grievances and pro-Russian stances. One such demonstration in September 2023 brought 10,000 protestors to Wenceslas Square in Prague, demanding the government’s resignation over its economic management and military support for Ukraine. The success of the left-wing, pro-Russian populist party of Prime Minister Robert Fico in Slovakia’s parliamentary elections last fall further highlights this broader coalescing of the far-left and far-right on the continent, where economic grievances were one of the primary issues in the campaign. Thus, although the brief unity of the left-wing alliance in France may initially indicate a rejection of Le Pen’s far-right party, the gains made by the far-left and far-right in France’s legislative election demonstrates the widespread appeal of populist policies and stances.

Further, the shake-up in French politics comes as the NATO Summit in Washington D.C. kicks off, where the 32 NATO members are set to meet. At the top of the agenda is the future of the alliance, with the potential rise to power of ardent NATO skeptics, most importantly the potential re-election of Donald Trump in the United States. Trump has repeatedly questioned the utility of NATO and even if he eschews withdrawing, it is likely that he’ll continue to harangue members over how much they contribute financially, bringing a transactional element that will directly contribute to low morale.

Still, it is not just Washington that may move the transatlantic project, and by extension the defense of Ukraine, toward an unstable posture with decreased readiness. Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who takes over from current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on October 1^st, comes into the job with a reputation for coalition building and ruthless efficiency. He is facing strong headwinds, and the stakes remain high.

The French elections have brought a surge in support for parties across the ideological spectrum with a history of distancing themselves from the collective defense alliance. While NFP does not state it wants to leave NATO, its 2022 predecessor NUPES, proposed a gradual exit from the Alliance. Mélenchon has previously proposed that France should exit NATO's integrated military command and eventually leave the alliance altogether, putting him in the same camp as some on the far-right. While other parties of the NFP alliance have not expressed the same NATO skepticism, LFI garnered the most seats.