INTELBRIEF

December 4, 2024

South Korea Declares Martial Law Then Revokes It, as Domestic Turmoil Mounts

AP Photo/Lee Jin-man

Bottom Line Up Front

  • On Tuesday, South Korea declared martial law for the first time in over 40 years since the country transitioned away from military dictatorship in the late 1980s, only to revoke it hours later following a majority vote against it in parliament.
  • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is seen as widely unpopular in South Korea, with an approval rating below 20 percent at the halfway mark of his term, while many have called for his resignation throughout his term.
  • There is concern that South Korea’s bellicose northern neighbor, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and its mercurial leader Kim Jong Un, could seek to take actions that would further destabilize an already volatile situation.
  • South Korea is a crucial U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific region, stationing approximately 28,500 American troops and hosting defense-critical technology industries including semiconductor manufacturers.

On Tuesday, South Korea declared martial law for the first time in over 40 years since the country transitioned away from military dictatorship in the late 1980s, only to revoke it hours later following a majority vote against it in parliament. South Korean President, Yoon Suk Yeol, accused his political opponents of attempting to orchestrate an “insurgency” and “trying to overthrow the free democracy,” as well as sympathizing with North Korea. In a televised speech Tuesday night, Yoon claimed that opposition lawmakers were making the country vulnerable to “Communist forces.” Yoon lashed out at the opposition, blaming it for blocking his budget proposal, launching impeachment charges against the country’s top prosecutors, and interfering with South Korea’s constitution. Chaotic scenes emerged from Seoul, with police officers donning neon yellow vests attempting to prevent people from entering the National Assembly building. There was also video of Army soldiers in camouflage fatigues and armed with long guns moving in unison to push back protesters.

Police clashed with protesters outside of the National Assembly and members of the President’s own party, the People Power Party, were critical of his move. Han Dong-hoon, leader of the party said that the “martial law declaration is wrong.” The opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP), which as the majority controls the National Assembly, called an emergency meeting to determine the next steps. Key opposition figure and leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, took to YouTube to plead with South Korean citizens to support “protecting the country and democracy.” According to Article 77 of South Korea’s constitution, a president can declare martial law to “cope with a military necessity or to maintain the public safety and order by mobilization of the military forces in time of war, armed conflict or similar national emergency.” Many in South Korea believe that these conditions were not met. South Korea’s parliament subsequently voted 190-0 to lift martial law and just hours after the declaration, Yoon reversed course and said he would comply with the parliament’s vote.

President Yoon is seen as widely unpopular in South Korea, with his opposition winning one of the biggest majorities in parliament during an April election, becoming the first president in decades to withstand an opposition-controlled parliament for his entire term, according to the New York Times. Yoon is now halfway through his five-year term with his approval rating below 20 percent, making him one of the most unpopular presidents in the country’s democratic history. The deepening dissatisfaction with Yoon has been exemplified in protests throughout his term. A protest held in November led by Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), the country’s largest labor union, drew in approximately 100,000 people according to the rally organizers.

The imposition of martial law has exacerbated South Korea’s already fragmented political landscape, underscoring the progressive erosion of democratic norms during the Yoon administration. In November 2024, Lee Jae-myung was handed a one-year suspended prison term relating to allegations of abuse of power during his time spent as mayor of Seongnam. Though the ruling has not removed Lee from politics yet, it has the potential to impact his eligibility to run against Yoon in the 2027 presidential elections and highlights ongoing concerns about political interference in judicial processes.

President Yoon has faced accusations of leveraging politically motivated criminal investigations to target opposition figures – including several prominent DP leaders – and suppress dissent. A 2023 Freedom House report downgraded South Korea’s democratic indicators, citing increased media censorship and the suppression of labor strikes, such as the 2024 junior doctors’ strike. This saw the mass resignations of doctors in response to reforms to increase medical school enrollment – the invocation of martial law would effectively forcefully end the strike. Considering this, the recent events point to the broader issue of a democratic decline in recent years.

There is also concern that South Korea’s bellicose northern neighbor, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and its mercurial leader Kim Jong Un, could seek to take actions that would further destabilize an already volatile situation. South Korea’s currency, the won, tumbled as news of the martial law declaration spread. With a vibrant democracy and successful economy, South Korea is typically viewed as a stable and reliable country, despite continuous saber rattling from Pyongyang. As part of U.S. Forces Korea, there are approximately 28,500 American troops stationed in the country. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that “we have every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law.”

South Korea has been an important U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific and is a signatory to the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States. South Korea is a crucial pillar in the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s expansionism. Additionally, South Korea plays a key role in the development and production of critical technologies with defense applications, helping to reduce U.S. dependence on China and diversifying its supply chains. South Korea is an especially important U.S. partner in the production of semiconductors. South Korea currently ranks third in semiconductor production capacity and holds roughly 19 percent of the global semiconductor market. Semiconductors are the backbone of various advanced defense capabilities including communication systems, radar, sensors, weapon guidance, precision-guided munitions, AI-driven systems, and secure encryption for cybersecurity.

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