December 3, 2024

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Lebanon Ceasefire Raises Expectations for Resolution in Gaza

AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov

Immediately after the start of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah last week, U.S. and regional diplomats pivoted to a renewed push for an end to the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Conflict in Gaza has raged since the Hamas incursion into Israel on October 7, 2023. Prior to the settlement in Lebanon, the U.S. and its Arab allies assessed that a ceasefire in Gaza would be necessary for Hezbollah to agree to a temporary cessation of hostilities. Its leaders, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, slain by an Israeli air strike in late September, insisted they would continue to rain artillery, rockets, and missiles on Israel until it withdrew from Gaza. However, Nasrallah’s successor, Naim Qassem, decoupled the two issues upon acceding to the group's leadership in late October.

Having achieved a Hezbollah-Israel truce, U.S. officials subsequently want to translate the Lebanon-Israel agreement into a resolution in Gaza. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said President Biden, hoping to achieve an end to the conflict before leaving office in January, has agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to try again for a Gaza agreement. Hours after the Lebanon truce went into effect, President Joe Biden stated: “And just as the Lebanese people deserve a future of security and prosperity, so do the people of Gaza…And so, now Hamas has a choice to make. Their only way out is to release the hostages, including the (four) American citizens which they hold, and, in the process, bring an end to the fighting, which would make possible a surge of humanitarian relief. Over the coming days, the United States will make another push with Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza with the hostages released and the end to the war without Hamas in power — that it becomes possible.”

Yet, it is unclear whether the Lebanon ceasefire will cause either of the two main actors to alter their core demands. Following the Lebanon ceasefire, Hamas stated it would “cooperate with any efforts” to end the war in Gaza, but it did not drop any of its longstanding requirements for a withdrawal of Israeli forces, the return of displaced Gazans, and a “real and complete” prisoner exchange. Hamas has told regional officials with which it is in contact that the group still wants to play a political role in Gaza – a condition that Israel, as well as the United States, has rejected.

It is also unclear if the Lebanon ceasefire will hold. Just yesterday, Hezbollah fired what it labeled as “defensive” shots at the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), responding to what it called “violations” of the ceasefire after an Israeli incursion into Lebanon killed and wounded civilians. Hezbollah launched two rockets at a watchtower near Shebaa farms. Netanyahu vowed to respond “strongly.” One of the countries tasked with monitoring the ceasefire, France, has accused Israel of violating the agreement 52 times since the deal was signed last week. Lebanon has made similar accusations and UNIFIL says that Israel has already violated the ceasefire more than 100 times. Yesterday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stressed to his counterpart, Israeli minister Gideon Saar, “the need for all sides to respect the ceasefire in Lebanon,” on the heels of multiple Israeli strikes in the country. Amos Hochstein, who helped broker the ceasefire and serves as President Biden’s special envoy to mediate the conflict, informed the Israelis that they needed to give more space for the ceasefire monitoring mechanism to function as intended.

It furthermore remains unclear how Hamas might alter its demands to reach an agreement. The group has not announced a successor to Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in an encounter with the IDF in Rafah in October, as the organization’s top leader. The major succession contenders have not publicly differed with each other or with Sinwar on the terms of an acceptable settlement, but they vary in orientation. Hamas leaders aligned with Iran and other Axis of Resistance partners, such as Khalil al-Hayya and Sinwar’s brother Mohammad, who leads Hamas’ military wing in Gaza, tend to take a hard line on a potential settlement. They argue that mounting international pressure on Israel over Palestinian civilian casualties will force Israel to end the war. Perhaps privately arguing for compromise, are Hamas leaders aligned with former Hamas Political Bureau head Khaled Meshaal, who has, in the past, expressed somewhat more moderate positions. Hamas moderates, including former top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, killed by an Israeli intelligence operation in Tehran in July, have at times supported changing the Hamas charter to accept final status negotiations with Israel. As did Haniyeh, Meshaal, and other moderates have stronger ties to Qatar, Egypt, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and other regional states aligned with the West rather than to Iran.

The reported November departure from Qatar of Hamas Political Bureau leaders, including al-Hayya and Meshaal, is potentially further complicating negotiations. Open media reports have stated that the leaders of Hamas who are within the negotiating team are now not in Doha. Qatar suspended its mediating role in the conflict but released a statement noting that Doha was willing to “resume those efforts with its partners when the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war and the ongoing suffering of civilians caused by catastrophic humanitarian conditions in the Strip, [and will] be at the forefront of making every good effort to end the war and return the hostages and prisoners.” Qatari officials were instrumental in the November 2023 temporary ceasefire, under which Hamas released 78 Israeli hostages, demonstrating Doha’s ability to wield influence over the movement.

For Israel’s part, Netanyahu continues to insist on total disarmament of Hamas’ military wing in Gaza and refuses to welcome the involvement of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) in the post-war governance of Gaza. Some members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition, including Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, not only demand the war continue until “total victory,” but they also advocate Israel resettle the Gaza Strip and displace Palestinian civilians there. New reporting by the New York Times alleges that Israel is building and fortifying military bases in Gaza, which will also complicate any potential resolution to the conflict. Compounding the challenges mediators face, many experts assess that Netanyahu wants to wait until U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated again on January 20, viewing his administration as likely to support his actions unconditionally.

As they seek to re-energize Gaza diplomacy, U.S. and allied diplomats hope to convince Hamas and Israeli leaders that the Lebanon ceasefire has put into play new factors that necessitate a rethinking of their positions. Mediators argue to Hamas leaders they are in a weak position and need to compromise because the Hezbollah ceasefire leaves Hamas bereft of active support from an armed ally. Furthermore, mediators argue, the end to fighting in south Lebanon enables the IDF to refresh its units and redeploy more manpower to Gaza to further reduce Hamas’ already depleted force and arsenal.

To Israeli leaders, diplomats argue that Israeli security sources are echoing U.S. assessments that the IDF has accomplished the vast bulk of what it can hope to achieve militarily in Gaza, and only the establishment of a post-war governing authority can prevent Hamas from regenerating its strength. Mediators assess that the Lebanon ceasefire will stoke additional political pressure inside Israel for a deal that brings the estimated 95 remaining hostages in Gaza back home. Of that number, more than 60 are believed still alive, but as the conflict continues, the potential for the hostages to die from Israeli military operations or the deprivation of long-term captivity is increasing. On Monday the Israeli military confirmed the death of Israeli-American soldier Omer Neutra, previously thought to be alive, and revealed he was killed on October 7 and that his body had been taken hostage into Gaza.

Despite the continued obstacles, experts assess the shifting regional landscape created by the Lebanon ceasefire, the departure of Hamas leaders from Qatar, and Trump’s election, could pave the way for a war-ending breakthrough. In recent weeks, Israeli and Egyptian officials have been conducting unofficial shuttle diplomacy in an effort to install new momentum in negotiations. Because it borders the Gaza Strip, Egypt has long had a direct and material interest in preserving calm in the enclave. Egypt was the first Arab state to sign a peace agreement with Israel, in 1979, and the two countries, despite its differences, have worked together for nearly two decades to try to stop the flow of Iranian and other weaponry to Hamas in Gaza. In addition, Israeli officials see the government of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as an ideological partner in opposition to Hamas, which traces its ideological roots to the Muslim Brotherhood – an organization Cairo now considers a terrorist movement and has outlawed.

Egyptian mediators have argued for altering the negotiating strategy to strive for a limited, temporary agreement that would presumably build momentum for a subsequent, more comprehensive termination of the fighting. Cairo reportedly argues that the longer a deal takes, the less likely it is to succeed. Cairo is proposing that Hamas release the hostages gradually, in contrast to Netanyahu’s demands that all be returned at once. President El-Sisi has apparently been in contact with President-elect Trump to pressure Netanyahu to agree to the Egyptian strategy. Some reports suggest Egyptian mediators also plan to propose the United States as a guarantor of any truce – adopting a role similar to what Washington will play in policing the Lebanon ceasefire. Still, few experts are willing to predict any major breakthrough is likely before President Biden’s term expires in January.