INTELBRIEF
August 28, 2024
Solingen Stabbing Ignites Fears of Resurgent Jihadism Targeting Germany
Bottom Line Up Front
- A knife attack during a public festival in Solingen, Germany, resulted in three deaths and eight injuries, with Islamic State later claiming responsibility for the attack, its first claim in Germany since the 2016 Christmas market attack by Anas Amri.
- The incident highlights a broader trend of rising jihadist activity in Europe, following a series of disrupted plots on the continent over the past year, including more than a dozen separate arrests in Germany related to Islamic State.
- The attack has triggered backlash from far-right groups in Germany, who view it as a direct consequence of the country’s immigration policies and will seek to capitalize upon the anger from the attack in upcoming local elections.
- The tragedy has sparked concerns that growing extremism on both sides could deepen social fragmentation and lead to a cycle of escalating violence and reciprocal radicalization.
A brutal knife attack last Friday in Solingen, a German city with a population of just over 160,000, left three people dead and eight others injured. The tragedy unfolded during the "Festival of Diversity" in Solingen's central square, where thousands had gathered to celebrate the city’s 650th anniversary. The following day, Islamic State claimed responsibility on its news site Amaq, stating that the perpetrator specifically targeted Christians and was a "soldier of the Islamic State" seeking to "avenge Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere."
Initial investigations led to the arrest of a 15-year-old boy who allegedly had prior knowledge of the attack and was seen speaking with the perpetrator before the stabbings. Later, after a major manhunt, a 26-year-old Syrian man, identified only as Issa Al H due to German privacy laws, surrendered to the police. Al H, who had applied for asylum in Germany and was living in a refugee house in Solingen, reportedly acted out of "radical Islamist convictions" and aimed to kill as many “non-believers” as possible, according to prosecutors. He targeted victims by repeatedly stabbing them in the neck. The perpetrator had been denied asylum and was supposed to be deported to Bulgaria, although he found a way to remain in the country, a fact that will be under increasing scrutiny as German politicians promise to toughen deportation measures.
The Solingen attack is not an isolated incident but part of a disturbing trend, as evidenced by other recently foiled terror plots linked to Islamic State across Europe. Earlier this month, authorities thwarted an attempt to carry out a mass-casualty attack at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, where suspects who had pledged allegiance to the group online planned to detonate explosives among concertgoers. Similarly, in late June, German police foiled a terrorist plot on the Euro 2024 soccer tournament just hours before the England-Spain final. These incidents have reignited concerns about jihadist terrorism, particularly as groups like Islamic State increasingly leverage social media to radicalize so-called lone-wolf actors and extend their reach beyond traditional strongholds.
According to Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), part of Islamic State’s social media strategy has involved exploiting global political tensions, particularly violence against Palestinians during the Israel-Gaza conflict and the 2023 Quran burnings in various Scandinavian countries, to reinforce a "West versus Islam" narrative. In their latest annual report, the BfV highlights how the group has capitalized on these political events to reorganize and recruit new members, leveraging heightened emotions to incite violence and disseminate extremist rhetoric.
However, the rise in Islamist extremist activity is not occurring in isolation. As Islamist extremists become increasingly motivated by these political events, far-right extremists are also reacting, leading experts to warn of "reciprocal radicalization" — a dangerous cycle where seemingly opposing extremist ideologies mutually reinforce and escalate one another. While empirical evidence detailing the exact extent to which extremist groups escalate in direct response to one another remains limited, experts caution that views on both extremes appear to be hardening.
Notably, in the wake of the Solingen attack, far-right leaders in Germany have been quick to use the incident, particularly the fact that the attacker was an asylum seeker, to bolster the narrative that Muslim immigrants pose a significant threat. Shortly after news of the stabbing surfaced, Björn Höcke, a prominent figure in the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, shared a video showing emergency vehicles at the scene, urging Germans to "free" themselves from "multiculturalization." The AfD has made immigration and refugee resettlement a fixture of their political platform, and earlier this year it was revealed that party members, alongside other prominent far-right figures including extremist Martin Sellner, met to discuss the forcible deportation of millions of immigrants from Germany, including naturalized citizens.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, echoed these sentiments after it was confirmed that the suspect was a Syrian national, calling for an immediate halt to Germany's acceptance of refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. Additionally, media coverage of the incident has been flooded with comments blaming the violence on Germany's perceived lenient immigration policies.
This response mirrors recent events in the United Kingdom, where the stabbing of three young girls at a Taylor Swift-themed dance party in August ignited violent right-wing riots. Protesters, driven by anti-immigrant sentiment, smashed car windshields, broke house windows, targeted mosques, and set fire to two hotels housing asylum seekers after false rumors spread that the attacker was a Muslim immigrant. The riots continued even after the rumor of the perpetrator’s background where debunked. In the aftermath of the protests, various Muslim preachers across the United Kingdom took to social media to publicly accuse those who participated in the riots of being "Zionists" and puppets of the Israeli government, further deepening mutual anger and distrust.
Amid an already fraught political climate in Germany, where debates over immigration dominate public discourse, the Solingen attack — occurring just one week before crucial state elections — has further deepened polarization and stoked public fears. Moreover, the incident provides an opportunity for the AfD to not only link the violence with its anti-immigrant stance, but also to recalibrate its image after mass protests in Germany earlier this year in opposition to the party’s participation in the meeting with Sellner and other far-right figures. As the party has shown its adeptness at capitalizing on such moments, prognostications that its connections to the broader European far-right would lead to diminished political support or electoral outcomes seem premature.
Further, the increasing societal polarization is further amplified by the growing use of social media by both Islamist and far-right extremists to spread their divisive rhetoric. The situation is compounded as some of this rhetoric is mainstreamed into public discourse by political parties and politicians, such as the AfD, further heightening tensions. In this volatile environment, Europe must be prepared to confront these dual, often reinforcing, threats, knowing that failure to do so could potentially lead to an even broader cycle of violence.