August 23, 2024

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Famine Looms in Sudan as Peace Talks Falter

AP Photo/Marwan Ali

The civil war in Sudan is ongoing as another round of peace talks in Geneva continue despite one side failing to show up. The talks were scheduled to be held in Geneva last week and mediated by the U.S. A delegation for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the militia group fighting the military, went to Geneva; however, following a drone attack at an army base that seemingly targeted the army general, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) repudiated the talks. Despite refusing to attend talks in Geneva, the SAF has stated it would send a delegation to Cairo for discussions with the U.S. and Egypt. According to Reuters, the talks will be aimed at implementing the Treaty of Jeddah, signed in 2023 with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to facilitate humanitarian assistance, which the Sudan government has called a “precursor” for broader negotiations to end the civil war.

Talks in Geneva proceeded despite the SAF’s absence, resulting in some advances in terms of humanitarian aid such as the opening of the Adre border crossing from Chad. The first food delivery since the corridor closed six months ago occurred earlier this week. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), trucks carrying sorghum, pulses, oil, and rice crossed into Sudan on Tuesday for 13,000 people at risk of famine in Kereneik, West Darfur. WFP has stated that it has supplies to feed 500,000 people through this route. U.S. special envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello, has adamantly claimed that negotiations are ongoing, despite not all parties being physically present.

As the peace talks falter – showing little sign of a cessation to the hostilities and violence – the humanitarian disaster in Sudan continues to worsen. A group of UN-backed experts concluded earlier this month that more than half a million people are living in famine conditions in the country, with over a million more at risk. About 25.6 million people, over half of the total population in Sudan, face acute hunger, according to the UN Office for the Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Although an official famine has not yet been declared, the conditions seem to be present. According to experts within the Famine Review Committee, the group of independent experts who can conclude when the thresholds for famine have been met, data from a camp for displaced Sudanese in the west confirms that the acute malnutrition threshold for famine has been passed. Further, the mortality threshold in the camp was met as early as January, indicating that the famine threshold was technically passed eight months ago. Analyzing data and reaching a consensus among experts can delay the process of an official declaration; yet conditions have only continued to deteriorate in the country as the war has escalated in recent months.

Due to the hunger crisis, reports have circulated that people are boiling dirt in water to feed starving children, with others claiming that people have been forced to sell children into marriage or to become child soldiers due to the dire conditions. The country has also been recently hit by a cholera outbreak, with dozens dead and hundreds already sickened in recent weeks, according to Sudanese health authorities. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the numbers are much higher, with 78 deaths from cholera recorded in the country this year, and 2,400 sickened by the disease between January 1 and July 28. The acute hunger crisis in Sudan, with many turning out of desperation to unclean food and water sources, heightens the situation and indicates the spread of the disease may worsen.

The humanitarian situation – described by many experts as the worst such crisis in the world – is compounded by the mass displacement of civilians due to the conflict. Over 9.2 million people are currently forcibly displaced, with 1.9 million of those civilians living as refugees in neighboring countries, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The mass displacement of people has severely impacted neighboring countries, risking destabilizing the wider region. According to the UNHCR, 600,000 refugees reside in Chad alone, where conditions are dire, as the mass arrival of refugees means waiting for days to register and access what aid is available. Conditions in the camps are also incredibly dangerous. Reports indicate that gangs capitalizing on the situation and the proximity to the border raid the camps at night, raping women and girls and trafficking in weapons.

Sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) has also become a fixture of the conflict in Sudan. According to a report released by Human Rights Watch last month, Sudan’s warring parties, particularly the RSF, have committed widespread acts of rape, including gang rape, and forced women and girls into marriages in the country’s capital since the onset of the current conflict in April 2023. According to the report, service providers treating and supporting victims have also heard reports of women and girls being held in conditions by the RSF that could amount sexual slavery.

In addition to sexual violence, reports have also indicated other widespread atrocities, including ethnic-related mass killings and the destruction of villages in Darfur. The targeted nature of the violence in Darfur and the systematic nature of the alleged atrocities by the RSF, coupled with the historical context of ethnic conflicts in the region, all indicate that the situation could evolve into a genocide. The involvement of the RSF, a paramilitary force born out of the Arab Janjaweed militia which was responsible for the Darfur genocide in the early 2000s, reinforces the concern of such a scenario.

Despite the U.S. and others attempting to elevate the sense of urgency on ending the conflict, several factors seem to inhibit a negotiated peace any time in the near future. Both warring sides – at least thus far – have failed to demonstrate that they can eventually defeat the other, and a clear end game for either side seems absent. The lack of civil society, particularly women, involvement in the peace talks is notable and ultimately a hindrance to a sustainable cessation of hostilities and eventual rebuilding of society.

Moreover, the international dimension of the conflict further complicates the ability to negotiate a settlement, with many analysts describing the situation as a proxy war. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is widely believed to be backing the RSF, with Sudan accusing the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons. With Saudia Arabia reportedly supporting the SAF, the two Gulf states have seemingly imported Middle East tensions into the conflict, viewing it as an opportunity to cement their own hegemonic status in the region and expand their networks of influence. Further, reports have circulated that Russia has supported both sides of the conflict – with the government offering weapons to the SAF and the Wagner Group supporting the RSF. As outside powers seem to risk a protracted conflict, conditions will likely only continue to deteriorate in Sudan, threatening spillover effects into the region.