August 19, 2024

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Gaza Ceasefire Prospects Cloudy Despite Diplomatic Push

AP Photo/Hussein Malla

Two days of talks in Doha on a U.S.-led plan to end the Gaza war ended on Friday without agreement, although U.S. and regional leaders expressed optimism that substantial progress had been made. President Joe Biden stated: “We are closer than we’ve ever been” to an agreement. However, statements by both Israeli and Hamas leaders as the talks concluded suggested the two antagonists have diametrically opposed assessments of the endgame of the Gaza war. Iran’s regional “unity of fronts” strategy against Israel and the United States is also at issue in any Gaza settlement, giving Tehran an incentive to try to determine the terms on which the conflict ends.

The talks in Qatar brought together officials from Israel as well as the three primary ceasefire mediators – the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. Attending the talks were CIA Director William Burns, Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime and Foreign Minister Shaykh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Abbas Kamel, director of Egypt's General Intelligence Service. Also in attendance were the head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, Ronen Bar, and the Israeli military hostage coordinator, Nitzan Alon. Perhaps reflecting the appointment of the hardline Yahya Sinwar to succeed the slain Ismail Haniyeh as Hamas’ paramount leader, the group refused to participate. Its Doha-based political members reportedly were briefed by Qatari and Egyptian officials throughout the two days of talks.

The Doha talks were also a response to the environment of escalating regional conflict in the wake of the July 31 Israeli operation in Tehran that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The killing, which coincided with a targeted Israeli air strike on Beirut that killed Fuad Shukr, the chief of staff of Lebanese Hezbollah’s military wing, prompted Iranian and Hezbollah threats of a major retaliatory strike on Israel. Both Iran and Hezbollah say only retaliation will restore deterrence against Israel.

U.S. officials perceived that a Gaza ceasefire agreement - as well as a significant U.S. military buildup in the region - would persuade Iranian officials to set aside a retaliatory attack. White House envoy Amos Hochstein was dispatched to Lebanon to urge Hezbollah to exercise restraint, insisting an escalation by the group would derail the Gaza talks. He also warned of potentially devastating consequences for Lebanon should Hezbollah initiate a major escalation. On the other hand, some critics asserted that pressing Israeli leaders for new Gaza concessions in the Doha talks to forestall an Iranian barrage amounted to giving Iran a “seat at the table” in the ongoing ceasefire negotiations.

But, should the talks fail when they reconvene later this week, the potential for Iranian and Hezbollah escalation will increase. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has indicated Iran has a religious duty to retaliate - a formulation that reveals Tehran’s calculation that failing to retaliate will only invite further Israeli attacks and operations on Iranian soil. Iran and Hezbollah possess large arsenals of missiles, armed drones, and rockets that have the potential to overwhelm Israel’s sophisticated air defenses and cause massive damage within Israel. As negotiators met in Doha, Hezbollah reinforced that message by releasing a video showing an apparent underground facility used by the group to store and launch missiles.

Many U.S. and global experts also assessed that the U.S. political calendar is driving U.S. leaders to press for the ceasefire talks to bear fruit. As the November 5 U.S. presidential election approaches, President Biden and Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris calculate that ending the Gaza war will help Harris advertise her foreign policy credentials. A Gaza ceasefire that causes Houthi leaders to cease their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea would also help calm global fears that war in the Mideast is hindering worldwide economic growth.  Accordingly, expanding the Gaza conflict into a regional conflagration so close to the election would seem to enhance former President Donald Trump’s chances of being returned to office.

As the talks ended on Friday, U.S. and regional officials expressed optimism for finalizing an agreement when negotiations resume late next week in Cairo. The United States, Qatar and Egypt said on Friday that ceasefire negotiations in Doha were “serious and constructive., The three issued a joint statement saying the mediators had put forward “bridging proposals” that would allow the “swift” implementation of a deal that would end the war in Gaza and see the release of Israeli captives. The bridging proposals were intended to resolve remaining key “sticking points,” including Israel’s demand that armed Palestinians be prevented from traveling from southern to northern Gaza and its refusal to agree to the withdrawal of Israeli troops from “flashpoint areas” in the Gaza Strip. Hamas also rejects Israel’s demands for a lasting military presence along the border with Egypt.

Whether misplaced, the optimism among mediating officials manifested as steps to begin implementing a ceasefire deal. In advance of a resumption of talks later this week, teams are continuing to work on how to implement specific measures. Negotiators agreed in Doha to establish an “implementation cell” in Cairo, which would focus on the deal’s logistics, including the releasing of the hostages, providing humanitarian for Gaza, and monitoring that the terms of the deal are met. Seeking to translate perceived progress in the talks into regional de-escalation, Qatari Prime and Foreign Minister Shaykh Mohammed spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart, the outgoing Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, on both days of the talks. He urged Iran’s leaders to delay their assault on Israel to avoid derailing the ceasefire talks.

However, statements by Israeli and Hamas officials seemed to contradict the sense of progress expressed by the U.S. and regional mediators. In a statement, Hamas said the latest proposals diverged significantly from the previous iteration they had agreed to in principle, implying they would not accept them. Husam Badran, a member of the Hamas political bureau, told Doha-based Al Jazeera: “In practice, the U.S. gives the cover and green light for the occupation and Netanyahu to continue this war while suggesting that there is a positive atmosphere. In reality, Netanyahu does not care about the atmosphere that the Americans are talking about.”

Israeli assessments of the talks appeared no more optimistic than those of Hamas. The Israeli Prime Minister's office issued a statement saying it “appreciates the efforts of the U.S. and the mediators to dissuade Hamas from its refusal to a hostage release deal.” Seeking to prevent backsliding from what had been achieved, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a visit to Israel over the weekend to "continue intensive diplomatic efforts” to reach a cease-fire and to underscore the need for all parties in the region to avoid escalation, State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said.

Still, the Israeli and Hamas statements at the conclusion of the talks seemed to reflect the deep divergence in their assessments of their positions in the war and of what can still be achieved from the fighting. Despite losing a large part of his force and several top aides and associates to Israeli airstrikes and operations, Sinwar reportedly believes international and domestic pressure will soon compel Israel to withdraw from Gaza, leaving his remaining forces and political operatives able to rebuild their control and military infrastructure there. He seems able to weather dissent in Gaza that has resulted from the displacement of a majority of Gaza’s civilians and the deaths of more than 40,000 Gazans (including Hamas militants).

Prime Minister Netanyahu believes he can weather U.S. and domestic pressure and continue reducing Hamas’ capabilities to the point where Sinwar will be forced to yield to new Palestinian political forces that will emerge or be brought to Gaza. Netanyahu has been able, thus far, to withstand the political backlash from the families of the more than 110 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas - of which perhaps 70 are believed still alive – that constitute a significant political force urging him to agree to U.S.-led compromise proposals to end the fighting.  As long as the leaders of Hamas and Israel assess there is more to be gained from continued fighting than from a ceasefire, it will be difficult for U.S. and allied mediators, no matter how skilled, to bring the war to a conclusion.