August 16, 2024

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U.S. and Japan Announce Plans to Accelerate Alliance Modernization

Androniki Christodoulou/Pool Photo via AP

Last month, the United States and Japan announced they would accelerate plans to overhaul their military alliance in response to growing security concerns in the region. The announcement was made following a 28 July meeting between Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko and Defense Minister Kihara Minoru and their U.S. counterparts, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. During the so-called 2+2 dialogue in Tokyo, the U.S. formally agreed to reconstitute its military headquarters in Japan, U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ), as a Joint Force Headquarters (JFHQ) reporting to the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Hawaii. The long awaited move grants the U.S. commander in Japan greater autonomy and allows for improved command and control coordination with the Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF). Tokyo had been advocating for such a change for fear that USFJ would be slow to react to security crises or natural disasters due to its limited authority. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin described the move as “the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation, and one of the strongest, improvements in our military ties with Japan in 70 years.”

The Joint Statement released following the bilateral also outlined steps to increase co-development and production of defense equipment. Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and Patriot PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancements (MSE), an air defense interceptor missile, were identified as the main programs for increased cooperation. U.S. provision of air defense equipment to Ukraine has added to existing backlogs in orders for Patriot missile components among the U.S.’s partners and allies. Enhanced co-production will expand production capacities and reduce existing shortfalls.

The statement also laid out steps to deepen Japanese cooperation with other U.S. allies in Europe, Australia, the Philippines, and notably South Korea, which has had historically frosty relations with Japan due to the latter’s colonial history. This is the latest step the U.S. has taken to integrate its partners in the region, bolstering cooperation and frustrating Chinese efforts to isolate and coerce U.S. allies.

Over the past year, meetings between U.S. and Japanese officials have surged, largely in response to concerns over increasing Chinese aggression in the South and East China Seas. Just three months ago, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Washington, where he addressed a joint session of Congress, underscoring Japan’s commitment to its alliance with the United States. In part due to the encouragement of U.S. officials, the rapprochement between Japan and South Korea has made significant progress due to a similar increase in the number of meetings between Japanese and Korean diplomats. The two countries have held a series of bilateral meetings and two notable trilateral summits, with U.S. officials at Camp David and in Tokyo last month.

In Washington, Japan’s increasingly proactive approach to foreign policy has been hailed as a major boon in the effort to check Chinese aggression. In Tokyo, however, there is vocal opposition over efforts to integrate Japan’s foreign policy with U.S. plans in the region and to bolstering the historically pacifist nation’s defensive capabilities. Supporters argue that cooperation with the U.S. will deter China, while critics make the case that such cooperation will place Japan at unnecessary risk, making it the front line of the U.S.’s so-far non-violent confrontation with China. The recent decision by Kishida to step down and not pursue re-election will likely further this debate. With its most westerly island just under 70 miles from Taiwan and hosting almost 60,000 U.S. servicemembers, Japan would find itself at centerstage if a crisis were to develop in the Taiwan Strait. Earlier this year, then U.S. INDOPACOM commander, Admiral John Aquilino, emphasized the possibility of such a scenario, when he said the U.S. believes the Chinese military is developing the necessary capabilities to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Japan’s geographic proximity to Taiwan and China has made it impossible to ignore recent Chinese provocations in the region. Tensions first began mounting in 2010, when a Chinese fishing vessel collided with a Japanese coast guard ship near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which both claim as their own. Tokyo’s decision to arrest the Chinese crew triggered a diplomatic crisis, with Beijing implementing an unofficial embargo on rare earth mineral exports to Japan and stepping up the frequency of territorial incursions in the area. This incident has had a significant impact on Japanese policy towards China ever since. More recently, Chinese military drills around Taiwan have caused alarm not only in Taipei, but Tokyo as well. In 2022, five Chinese ballistic missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, resulting in Japan lodging a formal diplomatic protest with the Chinese government.

These kinds of provocations have been motivating factors for Japan to deepen ties with the U.S. and adopt the mantle of regional leadership in efforts to deter China. This gradual shift has not gone unnoticed in Beijing. The recent U.S.-Japan agreement was quickly met with direct condemnation by Chinese officials. Referring to language included in last month’s announcement, Liu Jinsong, China's director-general of Asian affairs at the Chinese foreign ministry said, "China urges Japan to establish an objective and rational understanding of China, and stop making irresponsible remarks about China's internal affairs." Responses like this have become standard fare for Chinese officials following announcements of increased U.S. engagement in the region. As the U.S. further commits to confronting China alongside its partners, Beijing will continue to challenge the status quo, resulting in greater uncertainty and potential instability in the region.