INTELBRIEF
June 26, 2023
IntelBrief: Chaos in Russia After Wagner Group Mutinies Then Calls Off March to Moscow
Bottom Line Up Front
- In an extremely chaotic 48-hour period in Russia, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led a mutiny by his forces, only to call off his march to Moscow following a deal cut by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko which saw Prigozhin go into exile in Belarus, with uncertainty surrounding Wagner’s future.
- It became clear that Wagner had significant popular support in the towns where its forces showed up in southern Russia, with crowds chanting for the group and bringing food and water to its fighters.
- Prigozhin’s mutiny was in part a response to an order that would compel his fighters to sign a formal contract, along with dozens of other “volunteer formations,” with the Russian Ministry of Defense, a move by the Russians to streamline the Kremlin’s manpower.
- The new Soufan Center special report provides an analytic framework to understand the evolution of Putin’s private army and a blueprint for the inner workings of the Wagner Group.
In an astonishing turn of events, the Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared all-out war on the Russian state, leading a convoy of mercenaries to march straight toward Moscow. The mutiny, which embarrassed Russian President Vladimir Putin and caught the Russian military and security services completely off guard, developed at lightning speed and ended just as quickly, leading to widespread confusion and chaos. After storming through towns and cities in southern Russia, largely unopposed and in many cases welcomed by locals, Wagner troops announced a sudden return to their field camps, following a deal cut by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Under the terms of the deal, Prigozhin accepted exile in Belarus, leaving the future of Wagner very much in question. A new special report by The Soufan Center puts the Wagner Group into perspective and foreshadows the factors that will shape what happens next.
The Wagner mutiny had been building over months, generated by lingering grievances and resentment related to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Citing corruption and greed as the Russian military’s chief motivations, Prigozhin blamed Russian battlefield setbacks in Ukraine on the Russian Ministry of Defense, suggesting that the war has been a racket to enrich the Russian elite. Prigozhin’s ongoing feud with Russian military leaders finally spilled out into the open, prompted by what Prigozhin declared was a Russian military missile attack on a Wagner camp in Ukraine. Prigozhin has repeatedly assailed Russian military leadership in a public fashion, in the continuation of a feud that dates back years, to the battlefields of the Middle East following Wagner’s deployment to Syria.
As Wagner forces advanced on territory in southern Russia, including the military logistics hub of Rostov-on-Don, some observers speculated the developments could portend the opening stages of a Russian civil war, a situation which has historically had profound implications for the Russian state. After an initial period of quiet, Putin finally responded to the Wagner-led coup, labeling it treasonous and “a stab in the back of our country and our people.” Wagner’s seizure of Rostov-on-Don and march to Voronezh rattled the Kremlin, as Prigozhin threatened to continue maruading straight to Moscow. There were even numerous reports of Russian military soldiers defecting to Wagner’s side, as others stood aside and allowed Wagner forces to maneuver with no resistance.
The Wagner Group provided the lion’s share of muscle in Russia’s battle of attrition in Bakhmut. But Prigozhin himself became the story, enmeshed in ongoing feuds with other high-profile figures on the Russian side. This infighting served as a distraction and overshadowed Russia’s few gains on the battlefield. Prigozhin’s mutiny was in part a response to an order that would compel his fighters to sign a formal contract, along with dozens of other “volunteer formations,” with the Russian Ministry of Defense, a move by the Russians to streamline the Kremlin’s manpower. The fallout from the announcement led to the aborted coup attempt, but it remains difficult to see how Prigozhin survives his current predicament after exposing the vulnerability of Putin and his regime and humiliating the Russian leader, tarnishing his image of strength.
While Putin has long fashioned himself as Peter the Great, this weekend's events made it look like he may very well end up becoming Tsar Nicholas II. Putin’s failure in Ukraine might be manageable, but his failure in Russia could be fatal. Still, as Putin said in a statement before the negotiations were announced, “Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment.” Prigozhin may have survived the recent coup attempt, but his days are likely numbered, living in exile in Belarus and plotting his next move, leaving the future of Wagner uncertain. The new Soufan Center special report provides an analytic framework to understand the evolution of Putin’s private army and a blueprint for the inner workings of the Wagner Group.