The Iran War:
Understanding the Regional and Global Security Implications
As the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran, marking a significant development in the regional conflict, The Soufan Center mobilized immediately to provide independent, fact-based analysis. We will continue to monitor developments closely and deliver timely intelligence and security assessments as events unfold.
INTELBRIEFS
JULY 13, 2026
No End to the U.S.-Iran War in Sight
To the frustration of U.S., regional, and global officials, the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) did not reconcile or satisfy the rival strategic objectives of e……
JULY 09, 2026
Oman Is Front and Center as Iran Truce Collapses
This week’s apparent collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will position the Sultanate of Oman to play a central role in preventing the clashes from escalating into renewed majo……
JULY 07, 2026
Minefields Obstruct the Road to U.S.-Iran Peace
Since Friday, Iranian leaders have, together, been presiding over week-long funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, slain on the first day of Operation Epi……
JUNE 29, 2026
Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz as Ceasefire is Tested by Tit-for-Tat Strikes
The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) — which ended the U.S.-initiated conflict and restored the free flow of commerce through the strategic Strait of Hormuz — is ……
JUNE 25, 2026
Beyond the Battlefield: Fallout from the Iran Conflict
As the Trump administration continues to bring the war with Iran to a close, Vice President JD Vance has been in Switzerland negotiating the details of a potential agreement wit……
JUNE 22, 2026
Next Steps on the U.S.-Iran Agreement
After a series of recriminations linked to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, U.S. and Iranian officials met on Sunday in Lucerne, Switzerland. The talks mark……
JUNE 18, 2026
The Global Role in Implementing the U.S.-Iran Agreement
The U.S. and Iran, joined by senior officials from regional mediators Pakistan and Qatar, are expected to formally sign the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Switze……
JUNE 15, 2026
U.S. and Iran Shape the Optics of an Agreement
Officials from the two main combatant countries, Iran and the U.S., as well as regional mediators, acknowledge that a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) establishing principles f……
JUNE 11, 2026
Iran War Re-Ignites and Expands, Linking Multiple Fronts
On several occasions during the past few days, President Trump has asserted that the U.S. and Iran are close to finalizing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that will guide ne……
JUNE 08, 2026
U.S.-Iran War Inconclusive At 100 Days
The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran war reached the 100-day mark Sunday, with global officials and experts still lacking clear signs that an agreement to end the conflict permanent……
JUNE 01, 2026
U.S.-Iran Distrust Holds Up an Agreement
President Trump’s meeting with his national security team in the White House Situation Room on Friday fueled expectations that he would endorse a war-ending memorandum of unde……
MAY 29, 2026
Israel Reacts to U.S.-Iran Talks with Escalation
Israel has escalated its attacks on Iran’s allies in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon as U.S. and Iranian officials close in on an agreement that would end the three-month-long U……
MAY 26, 2026
U.S. and Iran Close in on a Framework Accord
U.S. President Trump and Iranian officials have confirmed a wide range of global and regional reporting that the two sides are close to finalizing a Memorandum of Understanding ……
MAY 22, 2026
Conflict Grinds on in Lebanon Despite a “Ceasefire”
The conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah is receiving less urgent attention from global and regional leaders than the U.S.-Iran war, partially because the health of th……
MAY 14, 2026
Iran War Widens Gulf State Fissures
A core component of the Iranian strategy to counter Operation Epic Fury — to divide and neutralize the U.S. allies on the other side of the Persian Gulf — has registered sig……
MAY 11, 2026
Escalate to De-Escalate: Confusing Signals in the U.S.-Iran War
As U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing this week for high-stakes meetings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump’s efforts to bring the Iran war to a conclusion that he ……
MAY 07, 2026
The Global Humanitarian Fallout of the U.S.-Iran War
Despite the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, that has so far held for the past month, the global humanitarian community has found little relief, if any, as the dis……
MAY 06, 2026
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Frays as Diplomacy Continues
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to break Iran’s control of traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz — “Project Freedom” — triggered a deteriora……
MAY 04, 2026
Iran Looks to the Region to Blunt the U.S. Blockade
Iran’s leaders see underutilized land transportation routes as one component of Tehran’s overall strategy to outlast the U.S. blockade that went into effect April 13.Utilizi……
APRIL 30, 2026
Iraq is Caught up in the U.S.-Iran War
The U.S.-Iran war is upending Baghdad’s decade-long effort to remain out of the crossfire between Tehran and Washington, as well as its ambition to reintegrate with the Arab w……
APRIL 28, 2026
Iran Open to Talks, but Plans to Outlast U.S. Blockade
On Saturday, for the second time in a week, U.S. negotiators were set to travel to Islamabad to continue talks with their Iranian counterparts, only to have their departure canc……
APRIL 24, 2026
Iran’s Use of Information Warfare in the Conflict against the U.S. and Israel
One of the most surprising aspects of the current war with Iran has been the Iranians’ effective use of information warfare against the United States and Israel. Iran has wage……
APRIL 23, 2026
An End to the U.S.-Iran War Proves Elusive
A second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, that U.S. President Donald Trump predicted would produce a ground-breaking accord and end the nearly two-month war, did no……
APRIL 20, 2026
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but Prospects for an Agreement Remain Uncertain
A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which ends Wednesday unless extended, has largely held. But tensions are heightened over access to the Strait of Hormuz, making i……
APRIL 17, 2026
Iran War Exacerbates the Terrorist Threat Landscape in Europe
The ongoing war in Iran is a disruptive threat multiplier for Europe’s current terrorism landscape. Rather than generating clear-cut, attributable plots, actors affiliated wit……
APRIL 16, 2026
With Talks, the U.S., Lebanon, and Israel Try to Isolate Hezbollah and Iran
As battles continued to rage between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, Israel and Lebanon met on Tuesday, under Washington’s auspices, for their first official talks since 1993. ……
APRIL 15, 2026
The Spillover Effects of the Iran War on Asia
Asia is experiencing shocks and reverberations across multiple economic sectors as a result of the U.S.-Israel vs. Iran war. The negative spillover effects are apparent across e……
APRIL 13, 2026
Failure of U.S.-Iran Talks and U.S. Blockade Might Presage Renewed Hostilities
21 hours of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad clarified Tehran and Washington’s main strategic priorities, but did not close major gaps in their positions, particularly on Iran’s……
APRIL 10, 2026
In Islamabad, Iran Will Try to Cement Strategic Gains
Iranian leaders interpret U.S. President Donald Trump’s agreement to a two-week ceasefire as an admission that U.S. and Israeli application of overwhelming airpower achieved m……
APRIL 09, 2026
An Already Tenuous Ceasefire in Iran Hovers on the Verge of Collapse
On Wednesday morning, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, Israel conducted a coordinated wave of strikes across Lebanon, repor……
APRIL 08, 2026
The U.S. and Iran Agree to a Two-Week Ceasefire
Less than two hours before his Tuesday deadline for Iran to reach a deal with the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump had posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to the t……
APRIL 07, 2026
The Human Dimension of the Iran War: The Intolerable Plight of Civilians
The daily coverage of the war in Iran, now in its sixth week, has at times been reduced to an unjustly sterilized portrayal of the regional crisis, characterized by tallies of d……
PRIL 06, 2026
Iran’s Missile and Drone Arsenal Remains Potent Despite Five Weeks of Intensive Strikes
At the outset of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump defined one key objective of the operation as “destroy[ing] their missiles and raz[ing] their missile industry to the gro……
APRIL 03, 2026
Iran Taps Its Axis of Resistance for Reinforcement
Iran has tasked its Axis of Resistance partners to help it thwart the assault by the militarily superior forces of the United States and Israel. The leaders of Iran’s key part……
APRIL 02, 2026
Where is the War in Iran Heading? Trump’s Speech Sheds Light on U.S. Endgame
On Wednesday night, U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the nation to provide an update on the conflict with Iran. During the speech, Trump claimed that the U.S. had destroyed……
APRIL 01, 2026
After the Guns Fall Silent, a Failed State in Iran Could Breed an Insurgency
After more than a month of war between the United States and Israel against Iran, the regime in Tehran has been battered mercilessly, yet many experts and the U.S. intelligence ……
MARCH 31, 2026
One Month In: Economic Imbroglio and Supply Chain Disintegration
A month into the Iran War, hostilities show no signs of letting up and the realities of disrupted global supply chains and destroyed energy assets are setting in. The Houthis, t……
MARCH 30, 2026
U.S. Combat Force Buildup Sets the Stage for Potential Ground Offensive in Iran
As the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its fifth week with no diplomatic resolution in sight, global officials and experts are increasingly turning their atte……
MARCH 27, 2026
Smoke and Mirrors? The Major Players Involved in The Iran Negotiation Discussions
Over the course of this week, U.S. President Donald Trump has touted diplomacy after almost a month of conflict with Iran. Trump has repeatedly made broad claims of progress, at……
MARCH 26, 2026
Iran’s Power Structure Adapts to War
Iran’s regime has exhibited resiliency and adaptability to the loss of many of its top government and security leaders since the war began nearly one month ago. President Trum……
MARCH 25, 2026
As Conflict Dominates the Global Headlines, Quiet Diplomacy Continues Behind the Scenes to Liberate Captive Americans
Since the United States and Israel initiated a military campaign against Iran, the world’s eyes have been focused on the regional and global fallout from the conflict. Countri……
MARCH 25, 2026
The Iran War: A Crisis for the Defense Industrial Base Now Too
The seismic economic ramifications of the Iran War are directly affecting the technological dimensions of the Great Power Competition between the United States and the People’……
MARCH 24, 2026
Competing Narratives: Understanding All Sides’ Approach to the War in Iran
After his 48-hour deadline before striking Iranian power plants expired, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the window until Friday. According to Axios, Trump claimed that U.S……
MARCH 23, 2026
One Battle After Another: No Easy Way for the U.S. to Open the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has turned its long coastline on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint into a strategic asset against the United States and Israel. Iranian attacks on nearly……
MARCH 20, 2026
Misplaced Assumptions Have Plagued U.S. War Efforts Against Iran
There are myriad assumptions by the Trump administration that have proven faulty thus far and have contributed to the devastation this conflict has wrought to date. Perhaps the ……
MARCH 19, 2026
Possible Implications if the Houthis Enter the War
After nearly three weeks, the war initiated by the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran has expanded well beyond the Islamic Republic, engulfing many of the countries in t……
MARCH 18, 2026
Red Line Crossed: Israel Targets Upstream Energy Assets and Iran Responds
On Wednesday, Israel signaled a clear expansion of the conflict, striking energy production facilities at Iran’s South Pars field. The unprecedented attack sparked retaliation……
MARCH 18, 2026
How the War in the Middle East Could Impact the U.S.-China Competition
On March 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington had requested a postponement of the meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, scheduled for March 31 to ……
MARCH 17, 2026
Larijani, the Basij, and the Narrowing Path to Negotiation
Last night, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that Ali Larijani — head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council — and Gholamreza Soleimani — head of Iran……
MARCH 17, 2026
Cyber Operations as Iran’s Asymmetric Leverage
Two weeks into the Iran war, key leadership and infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) have been st……
MARCH 16, 2026
Iraq Unable to Avoid the U.S.-Iran Crossfire
For two decades, Iraq has struggled to establish its sovereignty, political and social tolerance, and economic security, as well as to reintegrate into the Arab fold after decad……
MARCH 13, 2026
The Dynamics You Aren’t Watching: Iran’s Campaign Across Its Peripheries
On March 5, Azerbaijan announced that Iranian drones had crossed into the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an Azerbaijani exclave wedged between Armenia and Iran, injuring civili……
MARCH 12, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei’s First Statement Signals Escalation and Regional Pressure
Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since being appointed Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by U…….
MARCH 12, 2026
Lebanon Wracked by Spillover from the Iran War
The fears shared by the U.S., Israel, and the Beirut government that Lebanese Hezbollah might, yet again, pull Lebanon into war against Israel have been realized. After the U.S…….
MARCH 11, 2026
Economic Shockwaves Reverberate Globally Amidst Fallout from War in Iran
As the war with Iran continues into its second week with no clear exit strategy in sight, the global economy remains significantly impacted as oil and gas prices increase expone……
MARCH 10, 2026
The Iran War Serves as a Stress Test for European Strategic Autonomy
As the war in Iran enters its second week, European countries that have so far avoided getting embroiled in the conflict have been increasingly pressured to do so — a direct c……
MARCH 09, 2026
Iran’s ‘Mosaic Defense’ Strategy: Decentralization as Resilience Factor
On March 1, as Operation Epic Fury was well underway, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi succinctly described Iran’s defense strategy in a post on X: “We?……
MARCH 08, 2026
The U.S. Struggles with Exit Strategy as Iran Selects New Supreme Leader
On Sunday, the Iranians defiantly selected the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba — who is believed to be even harder-line than his father — as the next Suprem……
MARCH 07, 2026
Gulf States Caught in the Crossfire of War with Iran
Shortly after Iran retaliated against the United States and Israel in response to Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, Gulf states hosting U.S. bases became the target of Iran……
MARCH 06, 2026
The Economic Fallout of the War with Iran
The launch of Operation Epic Fury last weekend and the subsequent Iranian retaliatory strikes across the Middle East have unleashed global economic repercussions. Global energy ……
MARCH 05, 2026
The Iranian-Russian Partnership in the Aftermath of Operation Epic Fury
After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, Russia, a close partner of Iran, warned that “unprovoked acts of armed aggression” would lead to global and regional in……
MARCH 05, 2026
The Lebanese Front: Hezbollah’s Gamble in an Existential Conflict
Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict with Iran, Israel, and the U.S. appears to be driven by broader strategic considerations, rather than merely a spontaneous reaction to the ……
MARCH 04, 2026
Iran’s Western Frontier: The Kurdish Factor in the Expanding Conflict
The Trump administration has reportedly been engaged in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq regarding the possibility of providing them……
MARCH 04, 2026
The War in Iran Continues as the Conflict Grows More Complex
On the fifth day of the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, the conflict has evolved into a high-intensity, multi-domain campaign with no immediate end in sight. ……
MARCH 03, 2026
Beijing’s Balancing Act Amidst War in the Middle East
The outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran presents a major geopolitical test for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Beijing has had strong economic an……
MARCH 03, 2026
AI Integration in Operation Epic Fury and Cascading Effects
Operation Epic Fury relied on AI model “Claude” for operational planning, even as Anthropic, the model’s parent company, had been blacklisted by the Trump administration h……
MARCH 02, 2026
Iran Raising the Costs of the Conflict by Targeting Critical Energy Infrastructure
The war with Iran has entered its third day, with Tehran expanding its attacks against U.S. military targets and assets, while also broadening its strikes on oil and energy faci……
MARCH 02, 2026
U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran Seeks to Restructure Middle East Geopolitics
For the second time in eight months, U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have interrupted active diplomacy with Iran to undertake military action against I……
MARCH 01, 2026
Iran’s Leadership Transition in the Shadow of War with the U.S. and Israel
U.S. President Donald Trump stated earlier today that, what he described as “the new Iranian leadership,” has expressed interest in negotiations. “They want to talk, and I……
MARCH 01, 2026
Iran’s Asymmetric Escalation After Khamenei
A day after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran appears to have substantially escalated its response, demonstrating the continued ability to mai……
FEBRUARY 28, 2026
“Operation Epic Fury” Eclipses Diplomacy
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a series of military strikes against Iran, signifying an escalation in a region with already elevated tensions. The joint m……
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